EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: Carbon Rise On EU Gas, Equities Gains
Sep-04 15:26
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising, supported by gains in EU equities and gas, with the STOXX advancing following comments from French President Macron on avoiding a snap election, while traders resumed betting ahead of a key payrolls report on Friday
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.68% at 75.46 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 1.94% at 55.7 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas OCT 25 up 1.3% at 32.53 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas OCT 25 up 1.3% at 79.47 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 0.4% at 5347.34
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €74.38/ton CO2e, up 1.20% compared with the previous EU auction at €73.5/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- EUA Auction Calendar Week Ahead (Calendar Week 37) - A total of 16.8mn EUAs will be auctioned next week, with 4 auction sessions will be held. The latest EU ETS auction cleared at €74.38/ton CO2e, up 4.50% w/w, rising to the highest level since mid-June and standing above the 10, 50 and 100-day averages.
- Traders Position For Further EUAs Upsides - EUA Dec25 is positioned for further upsides, as downside protection grows cheaper and call interest rises, with the put/call open interest ratio declining and the call‑put volatility skew touching a seven-month low. Meanwhile EUA Dec25 prices edged up 4.36% w/w and open interest up 1.04% as of 3 Sep.
- Bullish conditions in ICE EUA futures remain intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Key short-term resistance at 73.35, the Jul 30 and Aug 8 high, has been cleared. This highlights a bullish development and signals scope for an extension towards €76.75, the Jun 13 high and a key medium-term resistance. Support to watch lies at €68.71, the May 30 low. A clear breach of this level would reinstate a bearish theme.
- BNEF said that following the new 15% US tariff on the EU, if EU industrial demand weakens due to slowing trade, a 2.5% emissions cut by 2035 would lower the average EUA price forecast by €25/t to €84/t by 2030.
- TTF is slightly higher today but withing the €31.4/MWh to €32.7/MWh range seen so far this week, with higher LNG imports helping to cover during the current Norwegian maintenance season.
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FED: US TSY 52W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.116 BLN FROM $50.000 BLN TOTAL
Aug-05 15:15
- US TSY 52W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.116 BLN FROM $50.000 BLN TOTAL
SWEDEN: Weak July Services PMI Keeps An August Rate Cut Possible
Aug-05 15:12
This morning’s services PMI was weak, falling 5.5 points to 48.8 – the largest one month drop since April 2020. While less closely followed than the Economic Tendency Indicator, the PMI has still contributed to a 1.6bp fall in 2-year SEK swap rates today.
- Thursday’s flash July CPI report will be key in determining the likelihood of a Riksbank August rate cut. Markets currently price just a 20% implied probability of such a move, but we have noted for several weeks that a cut cannot be ruled out before seeing the inflation data, particularly with activity signals still weak.
- Although new orders (51.5 vs 59.5 prior) and production (50.1 vs 57.3 prior) PMI components remained in expansionary territory in July, the falls relative to June were sharp.
- More alarmingly, the employment component fell to a 5-year low of 37.8 (vs 36.7 prior). The downward trend is more volatile than, but still broadly consistent with, the signal from the Economic Tendency Indicator’s services employment series.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Issuance List Expands
Aug-05 15:05
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 08/05 $500M CNA Financial WNG 10Y +125a
- 08/05 $500M Freedom Mortgage 7.75NC3
- 08/06 $500M Travel + Leisure 8NC3
- 08/05 $Benchmark MSCI 10Y +140a
- 08/05 $Benchmark Essential Utiites 10Y +130a
- 08/05 $Benchmark Macquarie Bank 11NC10 +170a
- 08/05 $Benchmark Standard Chartered 11NC10 +145a
- 08/05 $Benchmark Tennessee Valley Authority 5Y +25a
- 08/05 $Benchmark Daimler Truck 2Y +90a, +5Y +115a, +7Y +130a
- 08/06 $Benchmark PetSmart 7NC3, 8NC3 investor calls
