EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: Carbon Decline On Equities Pullback
Sep-17 15:15
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are edging lower, reversing earlier gains, weighed by a pullback in EU equities as traders await the Fed decision at 19:00 BST. Meanwhile, intraday volatility in TTF also influenced carbon prices, with the EUA-TTF intraday correlation holding above 0.50 in the afternoon.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.68% at 76.98 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 0.09% at 57.42 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas OCT 25 up 0.2% at 32.385 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas OCT 25 up 0.2% at 79.49 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 0.1% at 5367.99
- The latest bi-weekly Poland ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €77.53/ton CO2e, up 5.81% compared with the previous bi-weekly Poland auction at €73.27/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- UKA ICE auction cleared at £57.25/ton CO2e, compared with £53.55/ton CO2e in the previous auction on 3 Sept, according to ICE.
- EUA POSITIONING – Investment funds again sharply increased net long positions in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange to the highest level since the week ending 13 August 2021 according to the latest COT data as of 12 September.
- UKA POSITIONING – Investment funds raised net long positions in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange to an all-time high as of 12 September, according to the latest COT data.
- TTF front month is extending gains from yesterday amid concern for future Russian supplies, set against an expected ramp up in Norwegian supplies later this week. EC President von der Leyen said that the EU is looking into fast tracking the end of energy imports from Russia after the US said it needs to stop.
- The Environment Council is scheduled to start at 10:00 CET on 18 Sept. The agenda will focus on a debate over EC’s proposed amendments to the European Climate Law for the 2040 climate target, and a statement of intent for the post-2030 NDC ahead of COP30.
- BNEF expects the EU ETS 2 price to drop to €46/tCO2e by 2030 under strong subsidies, frontloading extensions and supply adjustments, versus the €122/tCO2e under current market design.
- EU domestic steel producers may benefit from CBAM-driven disruptions to steel exports, potentially lifting EUA demand.
- The EC will distribute 1.3mn free allowances among 53 EU aviation operators for emissions under EU ETS in 2024 to support the uptake of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), it said.
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SECURITY: Zelenskyy Rules Out Territorial Concessions Ahead Of Trump Bilat
Aug-18 15:15
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Fox News that it would be "impossible" to give up territory to Russia, ahead of his bilateral meeting with US President Donald Trump, which gets underway in roughly two hours. LIVESTREAM
- His comment, per Reuters, comes after Trump appeared to confirm yesterday that territorial concessions will be required as part of a comprehensive peace deal.
- In a statement on X this morning, Zelenskyy reiterated Russia has escalated attacks on Ukrainian civilian/energy infrastructure: "That is why reliable security guarantees are required."
- A primary unknown ahead of today's summit is the nature of an 'Article 5-like' security guarantee touted by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, who described the agreement with Putin as a 'game-changer,' which can be exchanged for a frontline ceasefire.
- Zelenskyy and European leaders will be cautious that such a guarantee may be aimed at severing Kyiv from NATO with a watered-down defence pledge that can be violated without the robust backstop of NATO's Article 5.
- Observers have dialled down expectations of a positive outcome. Simon Schuster notes in Time that Putin's stated goal of addressing the “root causes” of the war includes curbs to Ukraine's sovereignty that cannot be accepted in Kyiv.
- Ian Bond at the Centre for European Reform said: "If Trump thinks that Zelensky is going to agree to give up the fortress cities of the Donetsk oblast, just to get Putin to stop making war on him, he's out of his mind. It shows how little he still understands about the situation and the geography of Ukraine."
- Sam Greene at King's College London writes that Putin's "invitation to Alaska in and of itself was a tactical victory for Putin," adding that Putin’s objective is to "turn Trump into the cudgel with which he would bludgeon Ukraine and Europe..."
FED: US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.869 BLN FROM $73.000 BLN TOTAL
Aug-18 15:15
- US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.869 BLN FROM $73.000 BLN TOTAL
FED: US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.167 BLN FROM $82.000 BLN TOTAL
Aug-18 15:15
- US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.167 BLN FROM $82.000 BLN TOTAL
