NATGAS: " *EU DELAYS ROADMAP TO PHASE OUT RUSSIAN GAS"-bbg

Risk-off price action stemming from Trump’s tariff actions over the weekend, as well as continued threats to impose fresh tariffs on the EU, promote EGB spread widening this morning.

• This overpowers dovish repricing in the EUR short end.
• Note that the risk-off move has eased a little, as detailed in a recent bullet.
• Spreads 0.5-3.0bp wider vs. 10-Year Bunds.
• 10-Year BTP/Bunds +3bp at 112bp after failing to break the ’24 closing low at 106.4bp in January.
• Relative BTP sensitivity to risk-off moves, as well as global trade and inflationary impulses, mean that BTPs widen the most this morning.
• 10-Year OAT/Bunds nears the January 23 closing high at 75.8bp.
• French fiscal and political risk remains evident.
• PM Bayrou will use special constitutional powers later as he looks to force through the ‘25 budget. This is set to trigger a no-confidence vote on Wednesday. Bayrou will hope his recent concessions to the socialist party prevent them from voting against him.

• MNI: GERMANY FINAL JAN MANUF PMI 45.0 (FLASH: 44.1); DEC 42.5

Dovish flows dominate again early today:

• ERK5 97.875/98.00/98.125 call fly paper paid 3 on 7.5K.
• ERJ5/ERM5 98.00/98.25 call spread paper paid 1.25 for the M5 on 5K vs 97.87.