EU CREDIT UPDATE: CREDIT UPDATE: EU Close
€IG is pointing to a skew tighter to start the week - support from rates (-4bps) should help total return IG investors into the green as well. iTraxx closed -0.7/-5.5bp tighter, its been keeping within range vs. CDX. Stoxx finished +0.8% though earnings are still to come/likely to be driver of this weeks moves. Primary saw €7b eqv. price, books covered strong 4.8* though reported NIC's avg'd in the double digits. Focus tomorrow is on earnings - particularly busy in US pre-market that'll see Johnson & Johnson, P&G, General Electric, RTX, PACCAR & later Netflix report - all issuers in both € & $ markets. Macro stays quiet outside of early morning (London)/late night (ET) BoJ decision that is overwhelmingly expected to have no changes, with consensus & MNI looking for a hike in the April 26 meeting (full preview here; https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/59585/BOJ%20Preview%20-%20Jan%202024.pdf). We also have the New Hampshire Primary tomorrow which our Political Risk Team summarises as a non-event now; "Trump is now given a 90.1% implied probability of winning the nomination, compared to just 7.1% for Haley. The primary risk to Trump's path to the nomination now comes not from Haley, but the various legal battles he faces at the state and federal level." Continuing signs of long-end yield buying in $ primary; MidAmerican (Aa2, A) has priced its Green Feb '55's through its curve at +98, tightening 37bps from IPT.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.3712 High Nov 24
- RES 3: 1.3619 High Dec 7 and 12 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 1.3576 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3415/3495 High Dec 15 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3247 @ 15:41 GMT Dec 22
- SUP 1: 1.3219 Low Dec 22
- SUP 2: 1.3184 Low Aug 1
- SUP 3: 1.3175 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.3151 Low Jul 31
The USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish and price traded lower again Friday. The pair has recently cleared the bear trigger at 1.3480, the Dec 4 low. That break confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3184, the Aug 1 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3619, the Dec 7 / 12 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Heading North
- RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
- RES 3: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6847 High Jul 20
- RES 1: 0.6825 High Dec 22
- PRICE: 0.6811 @ 15:39 GMT Dec 22
- SUP 1: 0.6779 Low Dec 21
- SUP 2: 0.6644/6526 20-day EMA / Low Dec 07 and key support
- SUP 3: 0.6494 Low Nov 20
- SUP 4: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
Bullish trend conditions in AUDUSD remain intact and Thursday’s rally reinforces current conditions. The pair is also trading higher Friday. This week’s gains mark an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 0.6691, the Dec 4 high and a bull trigger. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6847 next, the Jul 20 high. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at 0.6526, the Dec 7 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6644, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 161.78 High Dec 1
- RES 3: 159.93 High Dec 4
- RES 2: 159.01 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 158.67 High Dec 12
- PRICE: 156.82 @ 15:38 GMT Dec 22
- SUP 1: 155.39/153.23 Low Dec 19 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
- SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support
- SUP 4: 150.92 Low Jun 14
EURJPY traded sharply higher Tuesday breaching resistance at 157.68, the Dec 11 high. The cross has since pulled back. The next key hurdle to watch is 158.67, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would signal a short-term reversal. Below 158.67, the recent recovery appears to be a correction and trend signals remain bearish. A continuation lower and a break of 153.23, the Dec 7 low and bear trigger, would resume the downtrend.
