EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening Calls - Focus on the FTSE
EU Cash Opening Calls, immediate focus is on the FTSE following the lower UK inflation and Barclays ...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
STIR: Just 6bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Dec, Pill & Bailey Due Today
GBP STIRs little changed, trading towards the hawkish end of their recent ranges after last week’s BoE decision and deepening fiscal fears in the wake of the latest monthly PSNB data.
- SONIA futures essentially flat.
- BoE-dated OIS shows just ~1bp of easing for November & ~6bp through year-end.
- We think that markets underprice the prospect of both a November and a December cut.
- Or full BoE review is here: https://mni.marketnews.com/4gvXe1c
- Late on Friday J.P.Morgan recommended entering Dec ‘25/Feb ‘26 BoE-dated OIS flatteners with "the curve towards the steeper end of its 3-month range and following Bailey’s comments post the September BoE meeting that he continues to expect more rate cuts although with less visibility over timing”.
- Comments from BoE chief economist Pill are due this afternoon (13:30 London), followed by comments from Governor Bailey (19:00 London). Expect Pill’s comments to be of greater interest for markets, as he speaks on monetary policy frameworks, while Bailey speaks on supervisory matters.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Nov-25 | 3.955 | -1.2 |
Dec-25 | 3.905 | -6.2 |
Feb-26 | 3.797 | -17.0 |
Mar-26 | 3.766 | -20.2 |
Apr-26 | 3.694 | -27.3 |
Jun-26 | 3.665 | -30.2 |
EQUITY OPTIONS: Huge digital Option late Friday:
- SX5E 4400/4350ps, bought for 1 in 200k.
- SX5E 4700/4650ps, bought for 1 in 100k.
BUNDS: Early Bid Led By BTP
The German Bund was testing the next support area noted last Week at 128.04, the very short Term 76.4% retracement of the September range.
Below the latter, opens to the September low situated at 127.61.
Early bid on the Cash Open has been led by the Italian BTP after Fitch upgraded its Italian Rating to BBB+ on Friday, but the moves remain fairly limited.
The German 10yr Yield should still see 2.75% when it is quoted, US Data beat, and ECB Speakers reinforcing that Rate level are for now accommodative have kept Yields elevated.
Small resistance in Bund is seen near Today's high, at 128.26 initially.
PMIs and US Core PCE are the Data to watch, BUT plenty of focus on the Fed speakers this Week especially given the splits in the last FOMC meeting.
Today sees, EU Consumer Confidence, but won't be a Market mover. There are no Tier 1 Data out of the US Today.
SPEAKERS: ECB Escriva, Lane, Nagel, Fed Williams, Musalem, Hammack, Barkin, Miran, BoE Bailey.
