EQUITIES: EU Banking index is up 67.6% this Year

The Swedish unemployment claims rate ticked up a tenth to 7.1% on a rounded basis in June, after seven consecutive months at 7.0%. Labour demand metrics within the report improved slightly relative to May, but the broader signal is still that the labour market is subdued. This will likely contribute to one more Riksbank cut this year, with analysts generally leaning towards a move in September. However, it is still too early to fully rule out a cut in August.

• Vacancies rose to 80k from 77k in May, but remain down 13% Y/Y. This meant the vacancy to unemployment claims ratio was steady at 0.21, the lowest since March 2021.
• Redundancy notices fell back to 5.1k, after rising notably to 7.9k in May. Some analysts had pointed to the Northvolt bankruptcy as a potential driver of the May increase. Still, the 3mma of redundancies remains at 6.2k, above the 4.8-5.2k seen between December and April.

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23  
• RES 1: 1.3749 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3707 @ 08:02 BST Jul 16
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

USDCAD is trading at its recent highs. Short-term gains appear corrective and the trend structure remains bearish. Resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.3749. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.

Desks calling futures in the 91.25-35 range at the open after CPI.