EQUITIES: EU Bank stock put spread
SX7E (16th June) 95.00/75.00ps, bought for 1.95 in 10k, vs 1.7k at 109.20
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H3) Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 115-26 2.00 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
- RES 3: 115-14 50% Aug - Oct Downleg
- RES 2: 114-23/115-11+ High Dec 19 / 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 113-20+ 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 112-07 @ 10:45 GMT Dec 28
- SUP 1: 112-11+ Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: 112-05+ Low Nov 14
- SUP 3: 111-27+ 61.8% retracement of the Nov 3 - Dec 13 rally
- SUP 4: 110-22 Low Nov 10
Treasury futures remain soft and the contract traded sharply lower Tuesday, extending the pullback from 115-11+, the Dec 13 high and key resistance. The move lower has exposed support at 112-11+, the Nov 21 low. Clearance of this level would open 111-27+, a Fibonacci retracement level. On the upside, the 20-day EMA, at 113-20+, marks a firm resistance. A break is required to ease the current bearish pressure.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: Richmond Fed Mfg, Pending Home Sales
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Dec-28 1000 Richmond Fed Mfg Index (-9, -10)
- Dec-28 1000 Pending Home Sales MoM (-4.6%, -1.0%); YoY (-36.7%, --)
- Dec-28 1130 US Tsy $33B 17W bill auction
- Dec-28 1130 US Tsy $22B 2Y FRN Note auction re-open (91282CFS5)
- Dec-28 1300 US Tsy $43B 5Y Note auction (91282 CGC9)
GILT TECHS: (H3) Trades Through 100.00
- RES 4: 105.29 High Dec 15
- RES 3: 103.12/104.31 20-day EMA / High Dec 16
- RES 2: 101.95 High Dec 20
- RES 1: 99.99 High Dec 28
- PRICE: 99.73 @ 10:55 GMT Dec 28
- SUP 1: 99.18 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 98.15 Low Oct 24 (cont)
- SUP 3: 97.33 61.8% retracement of the Oct 12 - Nov 25 bull phase
- SUP 4: 95.82 Low Oct 21 (cont)
Gilt futures remain bearish and the contract traded lower last week, extending the current bearish leg. The move lower has confirmed a clear break of support at 103.54, the Nov 21 low. This has strengthened the current downtrend and signals scope for a deeper pullback. The psychological 100.00 handle has been breached today. This opens 98.15, the Oct 4 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is seen at 103.07, the 20-day EMA.
