EQUITIES: EU Bank Call Fly Buyer

Johnson Redbook Retail Sales closed June on a high, rising 5.9% Y/Y in the final week (ending Jul 5 - June is a 5-week month on the retail calendar), after 4.9% in the prior week. This brought month-to-date sales to 5.1% Y/Y (lower than retailers' targeted 5.7% rise).

• Johnson Redbook notes that their preliminary target is for 4.8% Y/Y growth, with the estimate to be finalized next week. "July is a four-week month that ends on August 2nd and typically experiences relatively low sales volume, with promotions driving sales as stores clear out summer inventories and restock for fall."
• Anecdotes in the report were brief, and again didn't mention tariffs: "Significant increases in temperatures nationwide, combined with Independence Day promotions and increased demand for summer merchandise, encouraged consumers to visit air-conditioned stores. Many people also stocked up on groceries in preparation for the long holiday weekend."
• The Redbook series suggests continued resilience in retail sales through early July albeit continuing a gradual slowdown since some apparent tariff front-running to April. Next week brings the June advance Retail Sales report, which is expected to see a bounce vs May (headline 0.0% M/M after -0.9%, ex-auto 0.3% after -0.3%). A flat rate of headline M/M growth would roughly translate into a pickup in Y/Y activity to the high 3s from a 7-month low 3.3% in May.

• +10,000 FVQ5 109.25 calls, 3 ref 108-03.5 (laid off on screen) at 0920:47ET

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3 
• RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 148.03 High Jun 23
• RES 1: 146.77/83 76.4% of the Jun 23 - Jul 1 bear leg / Intraday high
• PRICE: 146.79 @ 14:26 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 144.95 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 144.23/142.68 Low Jul 7 / 1
• SUP 3: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 upleg   

USDJPY continues to appreciate. The latest recovery has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 144.95, and the daily close above the EMA highlights a stronger reversal. 146.19, the Jun 24 high, has been cleared. Sights are on 146.77, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, a clear break would open 148.03, the Jun 23 high. Support points to watch are 144.95, the 50-day EMA, and 144.23, the Jun 7 low.