UKRAINE: EU Approves €90bn Loan To Ukraine For 2026-27

The BBDXY range overnight was 1218.31 - 1220.71, Asia is currently trading around 1220, +0.10%. The USD traded sideways after consolidating its recent gains as risk tried to steady itself ahead of the Nvidia results. I continue to watch for signs of a base forming from which to move higher again. On the day it looks like the short-term range is 1217-1222, above 1222 and it could look to  rebuild momentum for a test of the 1230-35 area. Good support remains in the 1210-1215 area.

• MNI BRIEF: Fed's Barr Hasn't Made Decision On Dec But Cautious.  Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr on Tuesday said he has not made up his mind about interest rates when it comes to the central bank's meeting in December, but noted he will be cautious because inflation is still running at 3%.

Fig 1: BBDXY 4H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

Yesterday's net equity flows for EM Asia markets were dominated by outflows from tech sensitive plays Taiwan and South Korea. Taiwan's near $1.5bn in offshore selling follows nearly $2bn in selling from last Friday. We are now comfortably back to negative from a 2025 YTD standpoint, while in the past trading month, net outflows are more than $10bn. This is the largest rolling monthly outflow since early April of this year. For South Korea, net outflows in the last trading month sit close to $7bn. 

• Both markets have been supported on dips so far today, after sharp losses yesterday (Taiwan Taiex off 2.5%, South Korea's Kospi off 3.3%). Key focus will be Nvidia's results, out early tomorrow. Recent outflow pressures from both markets pressures suggest some bad news is already priced in, but it may take a decent upside surprise tomorrow to stabilize sentiment in the AI/chip space.
• Elsewhere, Indian inflows were positive to start the week, although the NIFTY continues to struggle to hold gains above the 26000 region.
• Indonesian inflow remains positive, with the past 5 trading days seeing over $300mn in net inflows. Focus later is on the BI decision, where the consensus expects no change.
• Malaysia outflows were very strong yesterday, helping to bring Nov to date net flows back into negative territory. USD/MYR FX has rebounded in recent sessions, correcting from recent oversold conditions. Malaysian equities are just up from Nov lows. 

Table 1: Asian Markets Net Equity Flows 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI 

One of Trump’s goals for his second presidency was peace in Ukraine but it has remained elusive with his discussions with Russia only resulting in frustration. President Putin didn’t follow through on promises, refused to agree to a ceasefire and demanded territory Russia currently doesn’t occupy. As a result, sanctions have been extended to include Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil from Friday but Axios is now reporting that the US has put together a new 28 point peace plan following its negotiated Israel-Hamas deal.

• Oil prices are lower following the report with WTI down 0.5% to $60.45 and Brent -0.5% to $64.58.
• The news is based on comments from both US and Russian officials and includes plans for peace, security guarantees for Ukraine and Europe, and the prospect for US relations with Russia & Ukraine. However, details have not been revealed including on contentious issues such as territory, international peacekeepers in Ukraine, Zelenskyy-Putin meeting and a ceasefire before negotiations begin.
• The US has been engaging in unilateral talks with Russia throughout the process this year against the belief that both Europe and Ukraine should be involved. This new plan has apparently been discussed between the US envoy Witkoff and Russia’s Dmitriev, and Witkoff and Ukraine’s Umerov, and is now being presented to the EU, according to Bloomberg.
• Dmitriev said in an interview with Axios that he felt “the Russian position is really being heard”, signalling that Ukraine will not be able to agree to this new US plan. It also apparently takes the ideas Trump & Putin discussed in Alaska in August.