EQUITIES: Estoxx targets the next big resistance - Option expiry Today

• RES 4: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 6381.00 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 6356.12 1.236 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6343.00 High Jul 15     
• PRICE: 6323.25@ 14:54 BST Jul 15  
• SUP 1: 6246.25 Low Jul 7  
• SUP 2: 6218.56/6073.00 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 3: 5811.50 Low May 23 
• SUP 4: 5645.75 Low May 7 

S&P E-Minis are trading in a range, closer to their recent highs. The trend condition remains bullish. Recent activity has resulted in a break of resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This was followed by a break of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6073.00.

The broader USD (BBDXY) ticked lower overnight/in early London trade, after registering a fresh July high in the wake of yesterday’s U.S. CPI data.

• GBP benefits from firmer-than-expected UK CPI data (detailed in recent bullets) in early London trade. Reclaiming 1.3400. The pair breached and closed below trendline support on Tuesday, affirming the short-term bearish trend. Key short-term support comes in at yesterday’s low (1.3371). GBP STIR & gilt opens now eyed.
• EUR/USD traded through 1.1600 in late NY trade, before retaking the figure, last ~1.1620. The corrective bearish cycle within the longer running bullish theme has extended, with initial support and resistance now defined at 1.1593 & 1.1730. The EU’s multi-year Budget and fallout from yesterday’s French fiscal announcements eyed today.
• USD/JPY topped out at 149.18 in Tokyo trade, before moving back towards 148.70. Fresh bullish extension would target the 50% retracement of the Jan 10-Apr 22 bear leg (149.38). Japanese long end yields are lower, although the bearish steepening theme remains intact multi-month.
• U.S. PPI dominates the macro calendar during the remainder of the day, coming on the heels of CPI data that started to show feedthrough from the President trump’s tariffs.
• Elsewhere, a raft of Fedspeak will come via Williams, Barr, Hammack, Bostic & Barkin.

• RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23  
• PRICE: $66.80 @ 07:19 BST Jul 16 
• SUP 1: $65.50/64.00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures maintain a bearish tone. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower and this suggests that recent gains have been corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.50. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to monitor is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.