EQUITIES: Estoxx outright call seller
May-16 11:00
SX5E (20th June) 5400c, sold at 1116 in 10k vs 5.7k at 5440.00.
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MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -8.5% SA THRU APR 11 WK
Apr-16 11:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -8.5% SA THRU APR 11 WK
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Bull Cycle Remains In Play
Apr-16 10:48
- In FX, the trend outlook in EURUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The recent breach of 1.1144, the Apr 3 high and a bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.1555 next, a 1.382 projection of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing. Initial support lies at the 1.1144 breakout level. Key support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1001.
- GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone and the pair continues to appreciate. Price has breached key resistance at 1.3207, the Apr 3 high and a bull trigger. This confirms the end of the recent Apr 4 - 7 correction, and highlights a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3305 next, the Oct 2 ‘24 high. Support to watch is 1.2963, the 20-day EMA.
- The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and the pair is trading at its recent lows. Recent weakness confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 141.65 next, the Sep 30 ‘24 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 146.95. First resistance is 144.64, the Apr 11 high.
CANADA: USDCAD Bear Cycle Remains Intact, Eyes US Election Lows
Apr-16 10:48
- USDCAD received a boost on Tuesday following the softer-than-expected March CPI data. The data did not result in any reconsideration of views for today's BOC decision that we have seen. Of six major Canadian banks, three had seen a rate hold and three a 25bp cut, and that continues to be the case post-CPI. Our full preview of today’s decision is here: https://mni.marketnews.com/3GcVyvz
- Broad dollar weakness today has helped USDCAD erode a solid portion of yesterday’s bounce, and a bear cycle for the pair remains firmly intact. Importantly, Monday’s low came within 7 pips of the US election lows, located at 1.3822, a level of key short-term significance. Moving average studies are in a bear -mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
- The recent fresh trend lows signals scope for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Below here, October lows at 1.3696 and 1.3643 could become notable targets should the central bank provide a relatively hawkish lean.
- However, should the BOC decide to cut rates and offer a dovish leaning guidance, the crosses may provide a more attractive expression of CAD shorts. Notably EURCAD is trading within 200 pips of a key medium-term inflection point, just below the psychological 1.6000 level that proved extremely significant in the aftermath of the covid pandemic. Additionally, CADJPY has recently been probing the August carry unwind lows around 101.65, of which a break could signal scope for the next leg lower towards 100.00.
