EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Eskom: Koelberg Unit 1 Reconnected

• -10,400 FVZ5 109-05.5, sell through 109-06 post time bid at 1137:54ET, DV01 $456,300.
• The 5Y contract trades 109-05.5 (4) last 

Switzerland has "has offered to invest in the US gold-refining industry, as part of its efforts to persuade the Trump administration to lower the 39% import tariff imposed last month", Bloomberg reports. Note that is already the second headline crossing today on Swiss - US relations following this morning's re-commitment for non-manipulation of FX rates ('Switzerland - US Reconfirm Not Manipulating FX Rates' - MNI, Sep 29).

• "The proposal made to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer would see Swiss refiners move their lowest-margin business to the US, according to people familiar with the talks. That includes melting down the gold bars traded in London and recasting them into the smaller bars favored in New York", Bloomberg adds.
• Switzerland previously made little to no apparent progress in further trade negotiations following the US's 39% tariff announcement on August 1. The Bloomberg article does not comment on the impact of the proposal on the negotiations. SECO (Swiss government ministry) downwardly revised their 2026 growth estimate from 1.2% to 0.8% as a function of the tariffs. The SNB meanwhile sees the tariff impact as "limited" on aggregate for the Swiss economy.

• RES 4: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 3: 114-00   Round number resistance
• RES 2: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 112-24/113-00 20-day EMA / High Sep 24 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-17+ @ 16:50 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 112-01   50.0% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase   
• SUP 2: 111-26   Low Aug 26
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 111-01+ 76.4% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase  

Treasury futures traded lower last week and remain in retracement mode. Thursday’s sell-off has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA, at 112-10. A clear break of this average would undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 113-00, the Sep 24 high.