UTILITIES: ERG (ERGIM NR/NR/BBB-): 1Q25 Results Headlines
"*ERG 1Q ADJ. EBITDA EU145M" "*ERG CONFIRMS 2025 GUIDANCE" - BBG...
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BUNDS: Breaking below 131.00
- Small downside momentum in Bund after breaking below the 131.00 figure, the soft demand in the German supply has helped, but looking like some Fast Money short term long cover went through at those lower levels, which helps explain the lack of speed in the move.
- Mostly order flow related price action, 10k cumulative was sold in Bund, small support moves up to 130.75.
US TSY FUTURES: Short Cover Dominated On Monday
OI data suggests that net short cover dominated during yesterday’s rally, with some of the fast money-type accounts perhaps exiting shorts set last week as markets started the week on a stabler footing.
- Only modest net long setting in UXY futures broke the wider theme.
| 14-Apr-25 | 11-Apr-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 3,990,577 | 3,995,866 | -5,289 | -199,955 |
FV | 6,378,968 | 6,410,943 | -31,975 | -1,380,446 |
TY | 4,737,391 | 4,769,881 | -32,490 | -2,096,789 |
UXY | 2,222,049 | 2,220,753 | +1,296 | +113,942 |
US | 1,793,095 | 1,807,035 | -13,940 | -1,763,972 |
WN | 1,844,070 | 1,848,387 | -4,317 | -805,855 |
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| Total | -86,715 | -6,133,076 |
GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: Soft Demand At Apr-30 Bobl Auction Weighs On Futures
Soft demand metrics at that E4.5bln 2.40% Apr-30 Bobl re-opening. The bid-to-cover ratio of 1.38x was much lower than last month’s 1.87x, and also the 2.01x average cover across the last four auctions (which includes a 2.52x cover at the January launch).
- The bid-to-offer ratio of 1.09x was similarly a lot weaker than March’s 1.43x.
- The lowest accepted price of 101.57 did exceed the 101.540 pre-auction mid-price, but the secondary price of the bond has since fallen back to 101.497 at typing.
- Bobl futures have fallen ~7 ticks since the results were published to 119.170. Earlier session lows of 119.150 remain untested, with initial support at 118.336 (the 20-day EMA)
