TURKEY: Erdogan Talks w/Putin On Black Sea Truce & Syria Security
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has held a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Says that Erdogan told Putin Turkey is following the efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and that it can host peace talks if needed. Erdogan told Putin that the "steps for safety of navigation in the Black Sea can contribute to peace" and that Turkey is willing to contribute. As the US and Russia continue talks on a possible peace plan for Ukraine, while Ukraine and its allies in Europe separately organise the 'coalition of the willing' to support Kyiv with a 'reassurance force' in the event of a ceasefire, Turkey remains one of the few NATO countries that Russia might countenance allowing to take part in such efforts.
- Separately, Erdogan tells Putin that 'Turkey values cooperation with Russia on Syria'. Erdogan says that Turkey and Russia need to 'work together for lasting stability in Syria, end acts that are fuelling sectarian violence, and lift sanctions.' Erdogan says to Putin that Syria's resources need to be left to the Syrian leadership, and that the US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces needs to be 'melted into' central gov't.
- Under the ousted President Bashar al-Assad, Russia was arguably one of the strongest foreign influences on Syria given its sizeable military presence on the country's Mediterranean coast. However, since Assad's ouster, Turkey is now the clear dominant foreign actor. There remain concerns, particularly in Israel, that Turkey will increase its military presence in Syria, which in turn could raise regional tensions.
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SPAIN DATA: Highest PPI Y/Y Since Feb'23 As Energy Dominates
Spain January PPI rose to 2.6% Y/Y from 2.3% in December - the highest level since February 2023. This is the fourth consecutive monthly increase. On a sequential basis producer prices rose a non-seasonally adjusted 0.4% M/M after 0.9% M/M in December and 0.2% M/M in Jan 2024.
- Energy was the main driver of the acceleration, at 8.6% Y/Y (from 7.9% in Dec) for its highest reading since December 2022. Recall energy HICP rose sharply in January to 7.8% Y/Y (from 5.5% in December) and 6.1% M/M (from 1.1% prior).
- Intermediate goods rose a marginal 0.2% Y/Y, though this is notable given it is the first positive Y/Y print since March 2023.
- Capital goods increased 1.5% Y/Y (after 1.7% in Dec).
- In contrast, consumer goods fell 1.4% Y/Y - the second consecutive negative reading and the lowest reading recorded in the last 15 years. Non-durable consumer goods led the way with -1.5% Y/Y (from -0.9% in Dec), whilst durable consumer goods PPI rose 0.6% Y/Y (from 0.5% in Dec).
- PPI excluding energy however shows prices falling 0.2% Y/Y for the second consecutive month.
GERMANY: Party Faction Meetings Continue As Pressure Mounts For Swift Gov't Deal
Debate continues in Germany regarding the speed at which the presumptive new gov't should look to either reform the debt brake, or alternatively set up a separate 'special fund' to pay for a significant increase in defence spending. In the immediate term, parties continue to deal with the fallout of the federal election by organising their new leadership teams.
- The centre-left Social Democrats' (SPD) Bundestag faction is meeting presently to elect a successor to faction chair Rolf Mützenich. Party co-leader Lars Klingbeil is set to take over, despite some within the SPD laying the blame for the party's worst electoral performance since 1887 at his feet. A statement is set to take place at 1100CET (1000GMT).
- The Bundestag faction for the pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) will hold their first meeting since the election at 1230CET. The FDP failed to cross the electoral threshold and therefore the dissolution of the faction is imminent. There is the prospect its lawmakers could prove important over the next month if the incoming gov't seeks to use the current Bundestag to create any new 'special fund' for defence spending.
- Finally, the Bundestag faction of the Greens holds its first meeting since the election at 1300CET. The Greens lost 33 seats, taking its total down to 85 out of 630. The party is set to sit in opposition given the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and SPD hold a majority, negating the requirement for a tripartite 'Kenya' coalition.
US: Johnson Scores Major Win w/Budget Vote, Challenging Negotiations Ahead (2/2)
The House of Representatives vote will ease some concerns from the Senate about the House’s ability to move legislation but there are still major obstacles to a final package. Senate leadership, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-ID), and key administration officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have argued that a tax package must make the TCJA permanent.
- Thune, Crapo, and other senior GOP Senators wrote in a letter to Speaker Johnson and Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) earlier this month: "...we will not support a tax package that only provides temporary relief from tax hikes."
- As there is insufficient fiscal space within the House resolution for permanence, lawmakers are exploring when the TCJA could be addressed under ‘current policy’ rather than ‘current law’, effectively setting the cost of extending the TCJA at $0 rather than ~$4.5 trillion over 10 years.
- If lawmakers attempt to use a ‘current policy’ baseline it could set up a showdown with the Congressional Budget Office or the Senate Parliamentarian, an independent officer who determines if legislation conforms with the reconciliation process.
- The Senate could overrule the Parliamentarian but that would risk permanently weakening the Senate filibuster. Thune said in January, when asked if he could overrule the Parliamentarian: “…that’s totally akin to killing the filibuster. We can’t go there. People need to understand that.”
