TURKEY: Erdogan Comments On Gaza Negotiations & Trump Talks On F-35s
Hurriyet reports comments from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaking on his return from the 12th Summit of the Organisation of Turkic States in Azerbaijan. Focus on his talks with US President Donald Trump at the White House and the nascent peace deal in Gaza.
- On the situation in Gaza, Erdogan claims that Turkey "is in touch with Hamas", adding, "We are explaining to them what the most appropriate way for Palestine's future is". Says that Trump, "specifically requested that we meet with Hamas and persuade them to agree. We quickly contacted our counterparts on this matter. I told him we support Mr. Trump's peace efforts."
- On the desired purchase of US-made F-35 Lightning jets, Erdogan said he brought up the issue clearly during his meeting with Trump, claiming "There is no legitimate reason for Turkey's removal from the program." Adds: "I hope the F-35 issue will be resolved and CAATSA sanctions will be lifted [as] the White House visit marked a new era in ties with the US." During the meeting, Trump linked the removal of CAATSA sanctions to Turkey halting its import of Russian oil.
- Middle East Eye also notes that Turkey is potentially looking at the purchase of second-hand Eurofighter Typhoon jets from Qatar to plug the gap to be left as its ageing F-16 jets reach the end of their lifespan, while the fifth-gen Turkish-made TAI TF-Kaan jets are still several years away from entering service.
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BONDS: Japanese Investors Bought JPY2.6trln of USTs In July
Japanese investors purchased JPY2.6trln worth of US Treasuries in July, according to latest Balance of Payments data, more than unwinding the JPY605bln of net sales seen in June. Year-to-date, Japanese investors have purchased JPY5.6trln of USTs.
- It highlights that despite ongoing US political/trade policy uncertainty and Fed independence concerns, there aren’t many alternatives to US assets for a country with as large a current account surplus as Japan (almost 5% of GDP as of Q2 2025). A reminder that the current account surplus must by definition be balanced by capital outflows in the form of direct/portfolio investment abroad (alongside other financial account components).
- Elsewhere, Japanese investors purchased around JPY335bln of German and French bonds in July.
- Over the next few months, it will be interesting to see if French flows are impacted by the latest uptick in political uncertainty. After President Macron called snap French legislative elections in May 2024, Japanese investors became notable sellers in OATs (see charts).
- Japanese investors sold JPY308bln of BTPs in July, while continuing to be steady net buyers of Gilts. Like France, it remains to be seen how Gilt flows are impacted by recent political developments ahead of the Autumn budget.
IRELAND BOND AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer this week
Ireland has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E1.0-1.5bln of the following at its auction this Thursday, September 11:
- the 2.60% Oct-34 IGB (ISIN: IE000LQ7YWY4)
- the 3.00% Oct-43 Green IGB (ISIN: IE000GVLBXU6)
COMMODITIES: Last Week's Gains Reinforce Bullish Conditions for Gold
A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest bull phase appears to have been a correction. The pullback from last Tuesday’s high highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low. Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The yellow metal has breached a key resistance at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high, delivering a fresh all-time high. The break also confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3623.1, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3440.0, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude up $1.05 or +1.7% at $62.9
- Natural Gas up $0.1 or +3.15% at $3.142
- Gold spot up $24.34 or +0.68% at $3611.69
- Copper up $1.1 or +0.24% at $456.05
- Silver up $0.16 or +0.4% at $41.1771
- Platinum up $19.42 or +1.41% at $1398.84
