FOREX: Equity Volatility & Fix Related Flows Help Contain FX Ranges
Jan-02 17:43
* Early strength for broad dollar indices on Friday was short-lived, with volatility in equity mar...
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LOOK AHEAD: UPDATE: Thursday Data Calendar Adds Revelio & Regional Fed Data
Dec-03 17:42
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 12/04 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (175.3%, --)
- 12/04 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (216k, 220k); Continuing Claims (1.960M, 1.963M)
- 12/04 0830 Revelio Labor Statistics
- 12/04 0830 Chicago Fed Labor indicators
- 12/04 1130 Dallas Fed Weekly Economic Index
- 12/04 1130 US Tsy $90B 4W, $80B 8W bill auctions
- 12/04 1230 Fed VC Bowman on bank supervision (text, moderated Q&A)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Challenger Job Cuts, Weekly Claims
Dec-03 17:34
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 12/04 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (175.3%, --)
- 12/04 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (216k, 220k); Continuing Claims (1.960M, 1.963M)
- 12/04 1130 US Tsy $90B 4W, $80B 8W bill auctions
- 12/04 1230 Fed VC Bowman on bank supervision (text, moderated Q&A)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
US DATA: Core PCE Estimates Still Likely Near 0.22% M/M For Friday’s Sept Report
Dec-03 17:27
- Within the import price data, air passenger fares increased a non-seasonally adjusted 14.0% M/M in September.
- That repeats the 13.9% in Sep 2024 but is strong compared to the 6.4% M/M averaged in the prior three years, leaving a reasonable seasonally adjusted increase.
- On its own, we estimate it could be worth 1-2bp for core PCE but its impact on tracking will clearly depend on what analysts had already pencilled in.
- For instance, Morgan Stanley have lowered their core PCE inflation estimate 1bp to 0.22% M/M as they estimate airfares increased 2.6% M/M after their own seasonal adjustment vs an estimated 3.2% M/M.
- We don’t imagine today’s release will have materially changed analyst estimates for Friday’s core PCE release, seen at a median 0.22% M/M after last week’s PPI report. MS had been at the higher end of a narrow range of 0.20-0.23% we’d seen after PPI.
- This follows 0.23% M/M in Aug and 0.24% M/M with MS previously seeing scope for a +1bp revision to Aug and +1.5bp for Jul.
