US CREDIT UPDATE: Equity Residential (EQR): 3Q25 Results
Equity Residential: 3Q25 Results
(EQR; Baa1/A-/NR)
Beat BBG consensus. Properties in SF and NYC producing better results though Wash DC growth challenged due to govt shutdown. Tweaked guidance to reflect this and some lower gains on sales. Credit Neutral. EQR trades among the tightest of all names in our REIT coverage universe.
• Total revenues were $782m, better than BBG consensus of $779m. Same store revenues were up 3.0%
• Occupancy was at 96.3%, up from 96.1% last year but down from 96.6% in Q2. Turnover rate was 13.1% in line with last year.
• SS NOI of $493m was up 2.8% YOY.
• EBITDA was $479m, was in line with consensus of $478m
• Net Income of $289m was better than consensus of $178m
• FFO/Sh of $1.02/sh was just ahead of consensus of $1.01/sh and up 4% YOY.
• EQR acquired one property for $103m and sold two properties totaling $247.9m. 3 development properties costing $379m reached stabilization during the quarter.
• Net debt to adj EBITDAre was reported at 4.4x, down from 4.45x in Q2. Total liquidity was $1.74b. EQR has no maturities remaining this year and $600m in 2025.
• For Q4, EQR expects normalized FFO/sh of $1.02-1.06/sh. FY25 guidance was adjusted, mostly downward slightly. Occupancy still expected at 96.4%. Revenues adjusted down slightly, at +2.5-3.0%. NOI also down slightly now at +2.1-2.6%. Normalized FFO/sh was changed slightly to $3.98-4.02/sh from $3.97-4.03/sh though growth at midpoint was unchanged.
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Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Breaches The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3968 High May 20
- RES 1: 1.3959 High Sep 25
- PRICE: 1.3939 @ 19:10 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 1.3885/3800 Low Sep 25 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
Last week’s rally in USDCAD cancels a recent bearish theme and instead strengthens a bullish outlook. The pair has breached a key resistance at 1.3925, the May 20 high and bull trigger. The breach confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16. This paves the way for a climb towards 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3800, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17
- RES 1: 0.6585/6628 20-day EMA / High Sep 24
- PRICE: 0.6547 @ 19:06 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26
- SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has breached support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6551. A clear break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 0.6527 (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6628, the Sep 24 high.
EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 176.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 1: 175.05 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 174.95 @ 19:02 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 173.53/172.24 20- and 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14
- SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1
The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross traded to a fresh cycle high last week. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 175.43, the Jul 11 ‘24 high and a key M/T resistance. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.53, the 20-day EMA.
