EQUITIES: Equity Downtick Abates, NVDA Earnings Eyed After Close
Equities move to the session's worst levels in the last 10 minutes, though have fully recovered almo...
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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Quarterly Borrowing Estimates Rise In Line With MNI Expectations
Treasury's latest borrowing / financing requirements estimates were slightly higher - but broadly in line with - MNI's estimates: $514B for the Apr-Jun quarter, and $554B for the Jul-Sep quarter (MNI had pencilled in $500B for each quarter).
- Financing needs are -$17B for Apr-Jun (MNI estimated -$14B) with $480B in Jul-Sep (MNI: $430B).
- The assumption that Treasury would maintain its end-quarter cash balance target of $850B proved correct.
- The Apr-Jun borrowing estimate was indeed raised significantly (by $391B) but this was entirely a function of the required cash raise as we discussed earlier today. As Treasury points out, "excluding the lower than assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $53 billion lower than announced in February.
EURJPY TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 163.76/164.19 High Apr 25 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 162.47 @ 16:50 GMT Apr 28
- SUP 1: 161.37/159.48 50-day EMA / Low Apr 9
- SUP 2: 158.30 Low Apr 7 and key support
- SUP 3: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4
The recent pullback in EURJPY appears corrective and the trend condition remains bullish. Last week’s gains reinforce this theme. Key S/T support lies at 158.30, the Apr 7 low. A break of it is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. First support to watch is 161.37, the 50-day EMA. Attention is on 164.19, the Mar 18 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
USDJPY TECHS: Fades Off Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 147.26 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 146.54 Low Mar 11
- RES 2: 144.47 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 144.03 High Apr 25
- PRICE: 142.66 @ 16:46 BST Apr 28
- SUP 1: 141.49 Low Apr 23
- SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 ‘23
Recent gains in USDJPY are considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 144.47, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 147.26. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection.
