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ECB-dated OIS continue to price a 60% implied probability of a 25bp cut at the October meeting, up from around 20% at the start of this week. Current pricing is seemingly at odds with recent Governing Council rhetoric and the MNI Policy Team’s latest interview with an ex-Board member.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Oct-24 | 3.264 | -15.1 |
Dec-24 | 2.939 | -47.7 |
Jan-25 | 2.687 | -72.8 |
Mar-25 | 2.381 | -103.4 |
Apr-25 | 2.161 | -125.5 |
Jun-25 | 1.961 | -145.4 |
Jul-25 | 1.852 | -156.4 |
Sep-25 | 1.760 | -165.5 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. |