EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
Oct-25 06:57
Estox 50: -0.23%, Dax: -0.18%, CAC: -0.30%, FTSE +0.15%, SMI -0.15%.
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EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
Sep-25 06:56
- Estoxx futures continues to unwind from Yesterday's high, some likely interest in fading the spike after the contract edged into overbought territory.
- Support in VGZ4 comes at 4915.00.
- Cash opening calls: Estox 50: -0.57%, Dax: -0.55%, CAC: -0.71%, FTSE -0.42%, SMI -0.23%.
STIR: 60% Implied Probability of Oct Cut At Odds With Recent Speaker Rhetoric
Sep-25 06:50
ECB-dated OIS continue to price a 60% implied probability of a 25bp cut at the October meeting, up from around 20% at the start of this week. Current pricing is seemingly at odds with recent Governing Council rhetoric and the MNI Policy Team’s latest interview with an ex-Board member.
- The weaker-than-expected flash PMIs on Monday spurred the initial dovish repricing, which extended further yesterday.
- The hawkish-leaning Knot said that he expects gradual interest rate cuts through H1 2025, but did not comment on specific meetings.
- Knot previously said that he was “more or less fine with market expectations of further cuts”, but this was prior to this week’s deepening of cut expectations.
- OIS price 48bps of cuts through year-end and 145bps through the June 2025 meeting.
- Euribor futures are flat to -1.5 ticks through the blues. YTD highs through to ERZ8 generally remain intact despite this week’s aggressive rally.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Oct-24 | 3.264 | -15.1 |
| Dec-24 | 2.939 | -47.7 |
| Jan-25 | 2.687 | -72.8 |
| Mar-25 | 2.381 | -103.4 |
| Apr-25 | 2.161 | -125.5 |
| Jun-25 | 1.961 | -145.4 |
| Jul-25 | 1.852 | -156.4 |
| Sep-25 | 1.760 | -165.5 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
MNI: SEP CHINA LIQUIDITY INDEX 30.2
Sep-25 06:46
- MNI: SEP CHINA LIQUIDITY INDEX 30.2
