US NATGAS: EQT - 3Q2025 Earnings Highlights
EQT stated production was at the high end of guidance for the quarter despite price-related production curtailments. They expect 2026 production to be consistent with their 2025 exit rate.
- They stated they are taking a tactical approach to production curtailments in response to volatile local pricing and their operating costs were lower than expected. Entered the quarter assuming 1 Bcf/d of curtailments, at Sub$1.50/MMBtu they were fully curtailed but at $2.50/MMBtu they were fully online.
- On hedging they stated “…the need to hedge basis to protect that downside is just not there in the same way. And instead, we're turning it from like a defensive strategy to more of an opportunistic proactive strategy through what we're doing with curtailments.”
- MVP Boost Expansion: oversubscribed open season resulted in upsizing the project by 20%, increasing capacity to over 600,000 dekatherms per day. Project is supported by 20-year capacity reservation fee contracts with the Southeastern utilities. Highlights a demand pull for the pipeline, rather than the supply push of MVP originally.
- MVP will have a total capacity of 2.6 Bcf/d once the Boost expansion is completed. They noted this more than 1.0 Bcf/d above current flows due to downstream bottlenecks that will be solved with the Transco Southbound and Northbound expansion in 2027 and 2028.
- Expect to put the Clarington Connector project in as part of the 2026 budget.
- Asked for an update on MVP Southgate where they stated they are evaluating and studying right now, but nothing to report as of this call.
- EQT expects global gas markets to be oversupplied in 2027 to 2029 so positioned their LNG exposure to begin after that in 2030 and 2031 with Port Arthur, Rio Grande, and Commonwealth LNG. They expect natural gas demand outside the US to rise by 200 Bcf/d by 2050.
- EQT expects a colder than normal winter for this upcoming season, and flat associated gas production for 1H2026 following producer discipline throughout 2025. They think this could lead to a tightening of inventories by the end of 1Q26.
- On the Olympus acreage they drilled 2 wells in the Deep Utica at a pace 30% faster than Olympus’ historical performance, saving ~$2 million per well. They stated the asset provides significant resource to supply the Homer City data center announced last quarter.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Recent Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 0.6793 1.500 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17
- PRICE: 0.6583 @ 21:01 BST Sep 24
- SUP 1: 0.6575/6551 Low Sep 22 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6527 61.8% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. The recent rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens 0.6726 next, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6551, the 50-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 174.74 High Sep 24
- PRICE: 174.71 @ 20:57 BST Sep 24
- SUP 1: 173.26/172.03 20- and 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14
- SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1
The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross has traded to a fresh cycle. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.26, the 20-day EMA.
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Reversal Lower Extends
- RES 3: 95.960 - High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 2: 95.875 - High Jul 2 (cont.)
- RES 1: 95.780 - High Sep 12, 18 and 19
- PRICE: 95.625 @ 20:42 BST Sep 24
- SUP 1: 95.510 - Low Sep 3
- SUP 2: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 3: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
Aussie 10-yr futures are trading lower. It is still possible that the move down is a correction. Near-term resistance to watch is 95.780, the Sep 12 high. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a continuation higher and open 95.875, the Jul 2 high on the continuation chart. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 95.510, the Sep 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead be bearish.
