POLAND: Energy Cap Could Be Extended Independently, Decision Expected In Autumn
Jul-25 06:56
- Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka told TVN24 that decoupling an extension of the freeze on household energy prices from the liberalisation of rules on setting up windfarms and re-tabling it as a standalone bill is 'absolutely on the table'. The extension was originally tabled as an amendment to the 'windfarm bill', in attempt to force the President to sign it into law, but it is expected that either outgoing President Duda or incoming President Nawrocki will still veto the legislation. Motyka said that the decision will be made 'in late autumn' and will partially depend on 'recalculated tariffs', which 'are a matter of next week'. The outlook for energy prices is one of the key factors currently monitored by the NBP.
- Ex-MPC member Łukasz Hardt, who earlier this week testified in a probe into NBP Governor Adam Glapiński, told Money.pl that allegations surrounding the central bank's QE operations were baseless and the programme could be re-launched in the future if the reference rate approaches the zero lower bound. He added that he did not see economic reasons for FX interventions conducted at the end of 2020 but did not interpret them as politically motivated action either. In his view, they reflected the MPC's conviction that monetary policy had to be loosened strongly and using different methods.
- Gazeta Wyborcza reported that Polish soldiers voted with an overwhelmingly far-right bias in the recent presidential election, citing a study commissioned by Senator Mirosław Różański, former General Commander of the Armed Forces. The study revisits some of the observations made by political analysts in the immediate wake of the election, noting that far-right candidates Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun outperformed in polling stations located near areas with large concentrations of military presence (along the eastern border and in Kosovo).
- Finance Minister Andrzej Domański suggested that it was unlikely that the annual personal tax-free allowance could be increased to PLN60,000 already in 2026, even as the government remains committed to delivering this election pledge.
- The reshuffled Cabinet will convene for its first meeting after the swearing-in ceremony held at the Presidential Palace yesterday. The agenda includes the National Security Strategy and a draft bill on the deregulation of spatial planning.
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STIR: Over 50bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Dec
Jun-25 06:52
Modest dovish adjustments in GBP STIRs this morning, with Bunds on the front foot and TY futures trading near yesterday’s highs after a contained round of Asia-Pac trading.
- BoE-dated OIS flat to 1bp more dovish on the day, showing 20bp of easing through August, 27bp through September, 44bp through November and 52bp through year-end.
- Recent dovish extremes of ~55bp of cuts through December remain unchallenged at this stage.
- We continue to look for the next cut to come in August.
- SONIA futures +1.0 to -0.5.
- June highs in SFIZ5 & Z6 intact and unchallenged.
- BoE’s Lombardelli will speak this morning (09:45 London). She will give the opening remarks at the Bank’s conference on transforming monetary policy.
- BoE chief economist Pill (10:00 London) will then speak on “the interest rate conditioning assumption and monetary policy communication”.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-25 | 4.016 | -20.1 |
Sep-25 | 3.948 | -26.9 |
Nov-25 | 3.778 | -43.9 |
Dec-25 | 3.693 | -52.4 |
Feb-26 | 3.570 | -64.7 |
Mar-26 | 3.534 | -68.3 |
MNI: FRANCE JUN CONSUMER SENTIMENT 88
Jun-25 06:45
- MNI: FRANCE JUN CONSUMER SENTIMENT 88
USD: The Yen is the Early mover into the European session
Jun-25 06:37
- The Dollar is mostly flat against most G10s, the Kiwi is the early standout, but is just off the high as it struggles to clear 0.6041, Yesterday's high and so far failed at 0.6040.
- The early mover is actually the Yen, testing session low against the Pound, EUR and AUD, the USDJPY is just short of the overnight printed high.
- Regarding Charts, worth keeping an eye on the GBPJPY, while it managed a 198.195 high on Monday, most will be watching the 198.256 level, the January and the 2025 high.
