POWER: End of Day Power Summary: CWE Remains in Red
CWE front-month power futures trade lower on Wednesday amid losses in the energy complex on demand fears due to the ongoing tariff war. An upward revision in wind forecasts is adding further downside.
- France Base Power MAY 25 down 3.5% at 30.7 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power MAY 25 down 2.1% at 61.22 EUR/MWh
- Italy Base Power MAY 25 down 4.9% at 95.05 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.6% at 61.07 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAY 25 down 7.5% at 33.52 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month has fallen significantly today after China’s increased tariffs on US goods raised demand concerns. Continued debate in the EU over increased gas storage flexibility has also increased bearish sentiment.
- EUAs are trending downward amid EU gas and equities losses over US tariff concerns. Meanwhile, implied volatility for EUAs/UKAs Dec25 is rising to a four-month high.
- Investment Funds positioning in ICE German power futures reduced their net short positioning, after having increased it for seven consecutive weeks, dropping by 1.6mn on the week
- Germany’s new government between the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) reached a deal on the coalition agreement, including several energy-related policies.
- EdF is reducing nuclear power generation by at least 2.37GW on Thursday afternoon amid economic conditions.
- Acer has outlined 12 targeted actions to unlock demand-side flexibility in Europe’s energy markets, including simplifying market entry, deploying smart meters, reforming electricity billing structures, and shifting to market-based balancing and cross-border cooperation.
- WindEurope is urging EU policymakers to cut excessive taxes and levies on power bills to unlock industrial electrification and boost energy security.
- European power markets have seen a new record level of negative-priced hours in March, with higher renewable penetration according to ICIS.
- The 700MW unplanned curtailment on the 1.4GW North Sea Link between the UK-Norway has been extended to 10 April from 9 April.
- Lithuania, Latvia, and Germany have unveiled plans for a joint 2GW hybrid offshore power connection, with a formal application to be submitted to Europe’s grid planning process this May.
- Nordic hydropower reserves declined for the fourth consecutive week to reach a fresh 2025 low at 48.02% of capacity at the end of week 14.
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ECB: Weekly ECB Speak Wrap (Mar 6 – Mar 10)
In the following publication, we provide a summary of post-March meeting ECB-speak: 250310 - Weekly ECB Speak Wrap.pdf
Post-March decision ECB-speak has seen Governing Council policymakers emphasise the bank’s genuinely data-dependent stance ahead of the April 17 decision, in light of “phenomenal” uncertainty and policy that is now “meaningfully less restrictive” than previously. This essentially places heightened focus on three sets of releases: (1) The March flash PMIs on March 24, (2) the March flash inflation print on April 1 and (3) the Q1 Bank Lending Survey on April 15. Other data will of course also feed into the equation, alongside developments around US trade and German/EU fiscal policies. The usual post-decision sources pieces from Bloomberg and Reuters suggest an April cut is in the balance, with unsurprising differences in opinion between GC hawks and doves.
- Characteristically hawkish-leaning rhetoric came from Schnabel and Nagel, though of more note was Villeroy’s comments on the ECB not being on auto pilot. Villeroy has been an influential centrist-turned-dove in recent months, and signs of a more cautious stance from him is likely a good representation of the GC median. Ahead of the March decision, Villeroy had seemingly favoured a run to 2% by Summer. This would be consistent with 25bp cuts at two of the April, June and July meetings.
- The 2025 ECB and Its Watchers conference on Wednesday will see "central bankers, financial market participants and academics discuss current issues of monetary policy and financial stability". Headlining the agenda are speeches from ECB President Lagarde (0845GMT) and Chief Economist Lane (1515CET), which will provide a platform to delve into more detail around the policy statement tweaks.
FED: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.075%(ALLOT 97.80%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.075%(ALLOT 97.80%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 25.35% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 8.04% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 66.61% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.03
FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.200%(ALLOT 38.92%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.200%(ALLOT 38.92%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 38.49% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 5.69% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 55.82% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.82
