EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Emirate of Abu Dhabi: FV $ 3Y & 10Y deal
Sep-25 06:48
(ADGB; AA2/AA/AA)
IPTs: 3Y @ T+40bp & 10Y @ T+55bp
FVs: 3Y @ T+10bp & T+15bp
- We sketch our FV considerations looking at seasoned bonds for the sovereign Emirate of Abu Dhabi curve. To gain some perspective, we look at spread moves since shortly after KSA’s last issued in $, conventional format (Jan ’25, see chart below). We note that ADGB’s curve has outperformed over the period, seemingly a reflection of “scarcity value”. Therefore, we see the seasoned bonds as relatively tight in spread.
- For the 3Y deal, we see FV @ z+35bp or T+10bp, that is in line with the interpolated curve, showing approx. 7bp discount to the longer dated, seasoned Apr29s charting at z+42bp.
For the 10Y deal, we see FV @ z+65bp or T+15bp, that is a 15bp pick up vs the shorter dated, seasoned Apr34s charting at z+50bp area.
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MNI: FRANCE AUG CONSUMER SENTIMENT 87
Aug-26 06:45
- MNI: FRANCE AUG CONSUMER SENTIMENT 87
FOREX: Cook Dispute Clouds Policy Picture Further
Aug-26 06:37
- Markets are mixed early Tuesday: USD pairs are inside yesterday's/late last week's range - keeping any technical triggers on side for now. The digestion of Powell's dovish JH appearance has partially reversed, with the heated dispute between Fed's Cook and Trump prompting further caution: Cook rejected Trump's firing of the governor on legal grounds - likely triggering further Fed-Oval Office dispute in the short-term - clouding the policy picture once again. The USD Index remains pinned between the 50- and 100-dmas of 98.097 and 98.863.
- FX futures volumes are healthy - likely a result of the catch-up after the UK bank holiday on Monday: GBP, JPY futures see volumes of 40%-80% above average, but EUR futures are the standout: heavy trade through Asia-Pac sees total activity over double what you'd expect to see at this time of day.
- The bank holiday effect will be partially responsible, particularly as markets respond to yesterday's steeper curve and the USD rally, but activity also backed up by WSJ's overnight report that China have sent a "senior" trade negotiator to the US - a likely signal that a trade deal can be reached that could unlock a Trump-Xi Jinping summit in the near future.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
Aug-26 06:33
- RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6572.45 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and all-time High
- PRICE: 6449.25 @ 07:22 BST Aug 26
- SUP 1: 6362.75 Low Aug 20
- SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 3: 6304.76 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 6304.76, the 50-day EMA.
