EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary -  EURPLN Bull Cycle Extends

Nov-01 11:44
  • A bull cycle in EURHUF remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The recent breach of 402.38, the Oct 7 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. 408.77, the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 2022 - Jun 2023 bear leg, has also been cleared. This opens 415.92, the Dec 13 2022 high, ahead of 418.50, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm support lies at 402.53, the 20-day EMA.  
  • EURPLN maintains a firmer tone and is trading higher again, today as the cross extends the bull cycle that started on Sep 25. The cross has traded through a key resistance at 4.3309, the Aug 9 high, and breached 4.3506, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 15 bear leg. The clear breach of this price point opens 4.3826, the Jun 14 high. Initial firm support is at 4.3245, the 20-day EMA.

Historical bullets

JGBS: Bid As Ishiba Continues To Lean Dovish

Oct-02 11:35

An uptick in JGB futures seen alongside the JPY weakness after Japanese PM Ishiba states that Japan is "not in the environment for an additional rate hike".

  • The initial rounds of post-LDP Party leadership race comments from Ishiba have definitely provided a dovish lean when compared to prior assumptions surrounding his monetary policy preferences.
  • JGB futures add ~15 ticks since the headlines, trading as high as 145.13, through their Tokyo afternoon peak.
  • Late September session highs (145.24/37) present initial resistance areas in the contract.

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'24 10Y Buy

Oct-02 11:35
  • +2,500 TYZ4 114-20, buy through 114-19.5 post time offer at 0723:33ET, DV01 $165,000. The 10Y contract trades 114-19 last (-3)

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call spread seller

Oct-02 11:32

0RH5 98.50/98.75cs, sold at 5 in 27k (said to be an unwind).