HUNGARY: Electoral Map Redrawn as Orban's Party Slumps in Polls
- Hungarian lawmakers passed an amendment Tuesday to redraw the country's electoral map in a move seen as beneficial to Prime Minister Viktor Orban's ruling party, AFP report. The amendment would reduce the number of constituencies in the capital and redraw the boundaries of some electoral districts.
- Local press continue to focus on yesterday’s rate decision. There, the NBH maintained the benchmark rate at 6.5% for a third month, while hawkish forward guidance was also unchanged. Deputy Governor Virag noted in his post-decision press conference that one MPC member voted for a 25bp rate cut.
- Our full review of the decision, with sell-side analyst views, will be released later today.
- Looking ahead, economic sentiment data is due to cross the wires either today or tomorrow. Average gross wage figures for October (Est: +12.4% y/y; Prior: +12.5%) are scheduled for Friday.
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SILVER TECHS: Corrective Phase Still In Play
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $31.649 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 30.624@ 08:10 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: $29.677 - Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 appears to be a correction - for now. However this corrective cycle remains in play and the metal is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and cleared $30.681, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low. This has exposed $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is $31.649, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.4224 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4140 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4126 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 1: 1.4106 High Nov 15
- PRICE: 1.4090 @ 08:07 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
- SUP 2: 1.3910/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 3: 1.3797 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
A strong rally in USDCAD last week reinforces the current bullish condition. The pair has cleared a number of resistance points and price is trading at the recent high. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition. 1.4140 marks the next upside level, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3910, the 20-day EMA. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.
EGBS: J.P.Morgan Recoomned Long 10-Year SPGBs Vs. PGBs
Late on Friday J.P.Morgan recommended going long 10-Year SPGBs vs. PGBs.
- They “still find PGBs expensive, trading through core sovereigns like Austria/Finland up to 10s and the Netherlands up to 5s.”
- They go on to note that “given the recent strong performance, we recommend entering underweight 10-Year PGB vs. SPGB to play for further relative underperformance of Portugal going into heavy January supply period.”
- They chose to express this vs. SPGBS “instead of vs. core EGBs as we prefer to have a risk-on flavour to the trade given our broadly constructive medium term intra-EMU stance.”
