CZECHIA: Election Campaign In Focus, CNB Media Blackout Begins
* Czechia's election campaign is in full swing before the October 3-4 polls. Prime Minister Petr F...
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Historical bullets
USD: NZD is at its lowest level since April
- The Dollar was mostly flat against most G10 going into the European session, but the notable mover was of course the Kiwi following the Dovish Cut from the RNBZ Overnight.
- The NZDUSD move was even larger than the one seen on the US NFP big miss.
- The Cross has not only broken through the August low but has also fully cleared May's low to trade at its lowest level since mid April.
- Next immediate support comes at 0.5803, the 50% retrace of the April/July range.
- The Yen is the small early best performer, up 0.25%, but the USDJPY is still just short of 147.05 Friday's low.
- The Pound is the second best performer, albeit by just 0.08% following the small 1 tenth beat in the UK CPI.
- Yesterday's high in Cable is at 1.3531, so far only printed a 1.3509 high.
STIR: Initial SONIA Reaction To CPI Fades, 11bp Cuts Priced Through Dec
GBP STIRs opened hawkishly in the wake of the CPI data, but the move fades, with European FI better bid, as noted in our early EGB bullet.
- Also note that we fleshed out our thoughts re: the data being unlikely to push back cut expectations substantially in a recent bullet. Please read that post for greater colour.
- The shallow degree of rate cuts priced through year-end also limits scope for a meaningful hawkish move.
- BoE-dated OIS now shows ~6bp of cuts through November, with ~11bp showing through year-end.
- SONIA futures are +1.0 to -1.0, with some contracts 3.5 off session lows. May lows go untested in SFIZ5, while June lows are untested in SFIZ6.
- Little of note on the UK macro calendar for the remainder of the day.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Sep-25 | 3.973 | +0.6 |
Nov-25 | 3.904 | -6.3 |
Dec-25 | 3.860 | -10.7 |
Feb-26 | 3.763 | -20.4 |
Mar-26 | 3.730 | -23.7 |
Apr-26 | 3.663 | -30.4 |
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Retracement Mode
- RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6554.98 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and Alltime High
- PRICE: 6411.75 @ 07:26 BST Aug 20
- SUP 1: 6402.75 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 3: 6282.00 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow retracement is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, supports to watch are; 6402.75, the 20-day EMA, and 6282.00, the 50-day EMA.
