REFINING: El Segundo Refinery Fire in Jet Fuel Production Unit

Bank of America note that “even if market expectations on Eurozone member states' GDP growth and public deficit have generally deteriorated (using Bloomberg consensus for ‘26 as a discriminator), the current rating agency guidance remains relatively balanced on the likelihood of upgrades or downgrades”.

• The believe that “on the side of upgrades, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy are biased for upgrades, while Austria (perhaps in 2026), Belgium and France risk downgrades”.

• RES 4: 92.06 High Aug 14 
• RES 3: 91.45 High Aug 15      
• RES 2: 91.24 High Aug 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 90.16/90.84 High Sep 2 / High Aug 28 / 29 
• PRICE: 89.49 @ 08:22 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 89.42 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 89.00 Round number support  
• SUP 4: 88.84 2.00 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing    

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and a fresh cycle low again on Tuesday reinforces current conditions.The contract has started today’s session on another bearish note. The continuation of the bear leg has resulted in a break of the 90.00 handle. Clearance of this level strengthens the downtrend. Sights are on 89.34 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high.

UK 30-Year yields have again hit the highest level since the late ‘90s, 5.735%. Moving average studies further underscore the bearish trend in long end UK paper/uptrend in yields. The 1.236 Fibonacci projection of the Jun 13-Jul 18-Aug 5 price swing nears (5.74%). The next projection of that move above there lies at 5.79%.