LNG: Egypt's 2025 LNG Import Forecast at 7.9m Mt: Platts

Aug-01 18:01

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Egypt's annual LNG imports are now forecast to reach 7.9m mt in 2025, a 21.5% increase from earlier ...

Historical bullets

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Accelerates

Jul-02 18:00
  • RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing 
  • RES 3: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 0.8694 High Apr 14 
  • RES 1: 0.8670 High Jul 02
  • PRICE: 0.8655 @ 16:21 BST Jul 2
  • SUP 1: 0.8521/8486 20- and 50-day EMA values 
  • SUP 2: 0.8459 Low Jun 11 
  • SUP 3: 0.8407 Low Jun 4 
  • SUP 4: 0.8356 Low May 29 and the bear trigger 

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and this week’s gains together with today’s acceleration, reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position - highlighting a dominant uptrend. 0.8648, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8521, the 20-day EMA.    

GERMANY: GS See Limited Inflation Effects From Minimum Wage Rise

Jul-02 17:45
  • We wrote on Friday on the German Minimum Wage Commission’s proposal to raise the national minimum wage by 8.4% in Jan 2026 and 5.0% in Jan 2027, including how it could contribute to at least some stickiness in services inflation. See more on the announcement here and here.
  • Goldman Sachs meanwhile write that next year’s increase will catch up to negotiated wage growth since 2022 before likely surpassing it the following year.
  • “We estimate that the minimum wage increases in 2026 and 2027 will cumulatively boost the wage level by 0.4%. This is substantially less than the estimated 1.2% boost from the 22% increase of the minimum wage in 2022.”
  • “The pass-through of minimum wage increases to prices depends on the size of the increase and the economic environment. Similar to other cost push shocks, pass-through rates for larger increases and for increases during times of higher inflation were stronger in the past. Pass-through of the coming minimum wage increases is likely to be closer to pass-through in 2015 than in 2022, as we expect inflation to be close to 2% through 2027 and the minimum wage increases are substantially smaller than 2022.”
  • “Using the 2015 pass-through rate, we estimate that the minimum wage increases could raise the 2027 price level by 0.4%. With an alternative approach using wage-price pass-through, we estimate a boost to the price level of 0.14%. Taken together, this implies limited upside to our inflation outlook but—given ongoing disinflation—does not materially change the inflation outlook for Germany.”

EU: European Parliament To Vote On European Commission No Confidence

Jul-02 17:37

Wires are reporting that the EU parliament is to debate a motion of no confidence vs the European Commission, with a debate on Monday before a vote on Thursday. 

“*EU PARLIAMENT TO DEBATE MOTION OF NO-CONFIDENCE VS COMMISSION
*EU NO-CONFIDENCE DEBATE MONDAY, VOTE THURSDAY,ECR'S SIMION SAYS” – bbg

Politico run a similar story citing six officials, with the full story here.

  • "It is the first time in more than a decade that the head of the Commission has faced such a move."
  • "The latest challenge to the European Commission president [Ursula von der Leyen], in what is proving to be a rocky first year in her second term in power, will see the German forced to appear in a debate about her leadership among lawmakers in Strasbourg on Monday, followed by the vote three days later."
  • “At this stage, the vote is mainly symbolic — the majority of political groups have already signaled that they will vote against the motion of no confidence — but it underscores the growing anger with her in Brussels after a string of controversial moves and scandals.”
  • "If the no-confidence motion were to pass, it would lead to the resignation of the entire Commission and trigger the complex process of appointing 27 new European commissioners."

 There had been reports on the matter earlier in the day but it’s now seen as being official. 

This from Simion on X: 
@georgesimion "????It's official!

Motion of No-Confidence against @EU_Commission led by #UrsulavonderLeyen will be debated next Monday and voted next Thursday in the plenary session.

Time to be held accountable!"