BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Yields Continue To Back Up
European yields backed up Wednesday, continuing their rise from Tuesday's lows, with Gilts underperforming Bunds.
- A soft long-end Japanese bond auction overnight set a weaker tone for global core FI early.
- In data, ECB 1-year ahead inflation expectations surprisingly rose but longer-term expectations were steady, muting the impact.
- On the day, the UK curve leaned bear steeper to the 10Y segment, with 30Y outperforming. The German curve more clearly bear steepened.
- BTPs led broader gains in much of the session, with 10Y yields falling to the lowest levels since February. 10-year EGB periphery/semi-core spreads tightened 0.3-1.0bps vs Bunds on the day.
- Thursday's calendar includes an appearance by BOE's Bailey; in data we get Spanish retail sales, and Italian confidence indicators and industrial sales.
- Attention for the week is on Friday's flash May inflation readings from Germany, Italy and Spain.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany:
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.6bps at 1.797%, 5-Yr is up 1.4bps at 2.107%, 10-Yr is up 2.2bps at 2.554%, and 30-Yr is up 2.9bps at 3.031%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 5.5bps at 4.075%, 5-Yr is up 5.4bps at 4.206%, 10-Yr is up 6.1bps at 4.727%, and 30-Yr is up 4.5bps at 5.48%.
- Italian BTP spread down 0.4bps at 98.1bps / French OAT down 0.5bps at 67.3bps
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US: Economy Grows As Political Vulnerability For Trump
A new survey from ABC News/Ipsos/The Washington Post argues that Trump, “has overinterpreted the meaning of his victory over former vice president Kamala Harris by pursuing policies that have generated dissatisfaction from the public.”
- ABC notes: “In broad strokes, the judgment of his presidency so far is that a majority think Trump has exceeded his authority, a majority say the economy is worse and about half say that U.S. leadership in the world has become weaker. The economy, once a clear attribute for Trump, has become one more source of public disapproval about his presidency.”
- Trump’s approval rating continues to fall at a rate that will flash warning signs for Republican lawmakers facing tight re-election races in 2026. A new CNN poll found Trump’s approval rating at 100 days lower than any president in at least seven decades.
- Reuters notes that more Americans are starting to feel the effects of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in their workplaces and investments.
- Eli McKown-Dawson writes in the most recent update of the Silver Bulletin presidential approval tracker: “Trump’s disapproval rating is now higher than it was at this point in his first term. On day 98 of term one, 51.8 percent of Americans disapproved of Donald Trump. Today — 98 days into term two — 53.2 percent of Americans disapprove.”
Figure 1: “Trump at 100 Days”
Source: ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos
GBPUSD TECHS: Pressuring Resistance
- RES 4: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
- RES 3: 1.3500 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3434 High Sep 26 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3424 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3396 @ 16:41 BST Apr 28
- SUP 1: 1.3234 Low Apr 23
- SUP 2: 1.3153 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3041/2966 Low Apr 14 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.2807 Low Apr 10
Bullish trend conditions in GBPUSD remain intact and today’s recovery confirms the latest pullback as corrective. Note that a deeper retracement would allow an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 1.3153, the 20-day EMA. The pair has recently breached 1.3207, the Apr 3 high and a bull trigger, resuming the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3434, the Sep 26 ‘24 high.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $5B Alphabet 4Pt Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 04/28 $5B #Alphabet $750M 5Y +32, $1.25B 10Y +47, $1.5B 30Y +62, $1.5B 40Y +70
- 04/28 $2B #Keurig Dr Pepper $500M each: 1.5Y SOFR+58, 3Y +68, 5Y +83, 10Y +98
- 04/28 $1.125B #Consumer Energy $500M +5Y +67, $625M 10Y +87
- 04/28 $1.1B #Northern States Power $600M 10Y +83, $500M 30Y +98
- 04/28 $1.1B #CBRE Services $600M 5Y +120, $500M 10Y +135
- 04/28 $700M *Posco Holdings $400M 5Y +137.5, $300M 10Y +157.5
- 04/28 $700M *Kookmin Bank $400M 3Y +77.5, $300M 5Y +82.5
- 04/28 $500M #Colgate Palmolive 5Y +38
- 04/28 $500M #DR Horton +5Y +103
- 04/28 $Benchmark Philip Morris 3Y +58, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +75, 10Y +93
- 04/28 $Benchmark Procter & Gamble 5Y +55a, 10Y +70a
- 04/28 $Benchmark General Dynamics 10Y +110a
- 04/28 $Benchmark World Bank 3Y +38a, 7Y +57a
