MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview – October 2025

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Key Release For December ECB Projections

• The Eurozone October flash inflation round will be compressed over just two days in October, with Spain and Germany kicking off on Thursday ahead of the Netherlands, France, Italy and the bloc-wide release on Friday.
• Overall, analysts look for headline HICP to recede 0.1pp to 2.1% Y/Y, with the core measure (excl. food, alcohol, tobacco, and energy) also seen marginally lower than in September, at 2.3%.
• The main movers in October will be the non-core categories. Energy deflation is expected to become a little more substantial this month, with the yearly rate seen around -1.0% Y/Y (vs -0.4% prior). This decrease in the annual rate will mostly be driven by base effects. FAT (food, alcohol, tobacco) meanwhile is expected to ease to around 2.6-2.7% Y/Y in October (vs 3.0% prior), with more muted sequential price increases compared to a year ago.
• Much eyed services inflation is expected to remain stable around 3.2% Y/Y amid steady underlying momentum, while non-energy industrial goods (core goods) is expected to remain around 0.7-0.8% Y/Y.