BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Yields Close Off Lows, But Curves End Bull Steeper

Apr-04 18:29

Continued risk-off fallout from Wednesday's US tariff announcement saw European yields fall sharply for a second consecutive session, with periphery/semi-core spreads widerning.

  • The core FI space took its cue from tumbling equities in a flight to safety in early trade, with Gilts and Bunds rallying strongly in a continuation of Thursday's price action as US officials showed no sign of backing down from aggressive tariff implementation, and China announcing retaliatory tariffs of its own.
  • Yields picked up from the lows set in late morning European trade though, due in part to Fed Chair Powell expressing a patient stance on rate cuts despite recent developments, and US payroll gains that were marginally more solid than expected.
  • Both the UK and German curves bull steepened, with the German short end outperforming overall.
  • That capped a week in which both the German and UK curves bull steepened, with Gilts outperforming Bunds: Germany 2Y yields -19bp, 10Y -15bp; UK 2Y yields -26bp, 10Y -25bp.
  • Periphery EGB spreads widened as risk appetite evaporated, led by high-beta BTPs / GGBs.
  • Attention over the weekend will be on US tariff developments - next week's schedule in Europe includes UK Monthly Activity Data.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 12.1bps at 1.827%, 5-Yr is down 10.5bps at 2.128%, 10-Yr is down 7.3bps at 2.578%, and 30-Yr is down 6.3bps at 2.979%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 7.6bps at 3.934%, 5-Yr is down 7.6bps at 4.018%, 10-Yr is down 7.2bps at 4.448%, and 30-Yr is down 6.8bps at 5.116%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 6.9bps at 119bps / Greek up 7.7bps at 89.1bps 

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 10Y Sale

Mar-05 18:29
  • -5,000 TYM5 110-27, sell through 110-27.5 post time bid at 1322:42ET, DV01 $324,000. The 10Y contract trades 110-26 last (-14).

US: FED Reverse Repo Operation

Mar-05 18:25

RRP usage inches up to $139.493B this afternoon from $135.257B Tuesday. Compares to $58.770B (lowest level since mid-April 2021) on February 14. The number of counterparties falls to 32 from 50 prior.

reverse repo 03052025

US: Trump's Address To Congress Get Good Grades From Viewers

Mar-05 18:23

CBS/YouGov reports that a “large majority of speech watchers approved of what they heard from President Trump's joint address to Congress Tuesday night,” noting that “the viewership was heavily Republican”.

  • CBS notes: “Most speech viewers described the president as "presidential, "inspiring" and more "unifying" than "divisive." A big majority also called it "entertaining."”
  • CNN notes: “The Republican-heavy audience that tuned in to hear President Donald Trump’s speech on Tuesday greeted it with tempered positivity, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS.”
  • The polling will provide a boost for Trump who saw his approval rating turn negative for the first time of his second term this week, according to 538. 

Figure 1: Views of Trump’s Speech, Among Speech Watchers

image

Source: YouGov