BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Long-End Relief Rally Extends

Sep-04 17:19

European long-end yields declined for a second day Thursday.

  • The rally in core FI that started early Wednesday continued unimpeded for much of the morning session, helped in part by softer oil prices and solid digestion of European supply, including Spanish and French auctions.
  • The latest BoE DMP survey pointed to a softening employment picture, while a strong 20Y linker auction saw a bull flattening move in Gilts extend. In other data, Eurozone July retail sales were on the soft side.
  • The fall in yields was interrupted in mid-afternoon, with equities rallying and US ISM Services headline data proving stronger-than-expected, but yields ultimately closed lower on the day.
  • The German and UK curves both bull flattened, with Gilts outperforming Bunds.
  • Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads tightened by around 2bp alongside the pickup in equities and aforementioned smooth EGB auction digestion.
  • Friday's European calendar includes German factory orders and UK retail sales data (as well as Eurozone Q2 GDP revisions/details and labour market figures), while global focus will be on the US employment report later in the session.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 1.964%, 5-Yr is down 1bps at 2.27%, 10-Yr is down 2.1bps at 2.719%, and 30-Yr is down 1.9bps at 3.337%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.1bps at 3.949%, 5-Yr is down 2bps at 4.11%, 10-Yr is down 2.8bps at 4.72%, and 30-Yr is down 2.9bps at 5.574%.
  • Italian BTP spread down 2.3bps at 85bps  / French OAT down 2.3bps at 77.6bps  

Historical bullets

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 3Y Note Auction: Another Small Tail

Aug-05 17:03
  • Treasury futures remain weaker, little react after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CNU1) tails yet again: drawing 3.669% high yield vs. 3.662% WI; 2.53x bid-to-cover vs. 2.51x prior.
  • Peripheral stats see indirect take-up slips to 53.99% vs. 54.11% prior; direct bidder take-up 28.13% from 29.38% prior; primary dealer take-up rises to 17.88% vs. 16.51% prior.
  • The next 3Y auction is tentatively scheduled for September 9.

FED: US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 3.669%; ALLOTMENT 72.30%

Aug-05 17:02
  • US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 3.669%; ALLOTMENT 72.30%
  • US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 17.88% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 28.13% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 53.99% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 3Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.53

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

Aug-05 17:00
  • RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
  • RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
  • RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
  • RES 1: 1.1617 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 1.1578 @ 16:43 BST Aug 5
  • SUP 1: 1.1401 Low Jul 30 and a bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 1.1373 Low Jun 10
  • SUP 3: 1.1313 Low May 30
  • SUP 4: 1.1184 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jul 1 bull cycle  

Despite Friday's rally and a late recovery into the Tuesday close, EURUSD maintains a bearish tone. The recent breach of key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1548, highlights a stronger reversal and the start of a correction. This opens 1.1373 next, the Jun 10 low. Firm resistance is seen at 1.1617, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to signal a reversal. This week’s price action highlights a key short-term support and bear trigger at 1.1401, Jul 30 low. A break would resume the downtrend.