BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: German Curve Twist Flattens Pre-ECB

Jun-04 17:36

European curves flattened Wednesday, with Gilts outperforming Bunds.

  • Bunds softened early, with Eurozone services PMI revised up, the German cabinet approving corporate tax cuts, and equities gaining ground. EGB weakness spilled over into Gilts.
  • Afternoon moves in Gilts in particular tracked US Treasuries, which were buoyed by soft ADP private payroll and ISM Services data.
  • For the session, the German curve twist flattened, with the UK's bull flattening.
  • Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads were little changed; BTPs modestly outperformed.
  • The ECB meeting, with an expected 25bp cut, is Thursday's focus -  MNI's preview is here.
  • We also get BoE DMP survey, and appearances by Greene and Breeden.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 1.2bps at 1.798%, 5-Yr is up 1.6bps at 2.098%, 10-Yr is up 0.3bps at 2.528%, and 30-Yr is down 1.8bps at 2.999%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.3bps at 4.005%, 5-Yr is down 2.8bps at 4.115%, 10-Yr is down 3.2bps at 4.606%, and 30-Yr is down 4.5bps at 5.322%.
  • Italian BTP spread down 0.6bps at 96.4bps / French OAT up 0.3bps at 67.3bps  

Historical bullets

GBPUSD TECHS: Retracement Mode

May-05 17:30
  • RES 4: 1.3605 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
  • RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22 
  • RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
  • RES 1: 1.3444 High Apr 28 / 29 
  • PRICE: 1.3307 @ 15:01 BST May 5
  • SUP 1: 1.3257 Intraday low  
  • SUP 2: 1.3225 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 1.3041/3035 Low Apr 14 / 50-day EMA 
  • SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

The latest pullback in GBPUSD is considered corrective. A bearish tweezer top formation on the daily candle chart last Monday/Tuesday, highlights a short-term top. Support to watch lies at 1.3225, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant underlying uptrend. Sights are on 1.3510, a Fibonacci projection. 

MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI Interviews Former Dallas Fed Adviser on Monetary Policy

May-05 17:19
  • MNI interviews former Dallas Fed adviser on monetary policy -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: March Trade Balance, Tsy 10Y Auction

May-05 17:15
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 6-May 0830 Trade Balance (-$122.7B, -$137.2B)
  • 6-May 1130 US Tsy $70B 6W bill auction
  • 6-May 1300 US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction (91282CNC1)