BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Curves Bear Steepen To End The Week

Aug-29 16:51

European curves bear steepened to close the week. 

  • The overall price action for the session was set from the start, with light bear steepening seen on both the UK and German curves from early trade.
  • There was little reaction to national-level August flash inflation data, which was generally seen as being on the soft side for headline but core measures were mixed.
  • Likewise, US data in the European afternoon was largely in line with consensus, not bringing much reaction on either side of the Atlantic.
  • The German and UK curves both bear steepened, with Bunds slightly underperforming Gilts. For the week, both the UK (2Y yield -0.1bp, 10Y +2.9bp) and German (2Y yield -0.8bp, 10Y +0.2bp) curves twist steepened.
  • Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads widened, with OATs outperforming and closing the week below the 80bp mark, rising around 9bp for the week on political concerns but below the 81.8bp post-Jan closing high set Wednesday.
  • Next week's scheduled highlights include the Eurozone-wide inflation reading, BOE Treasury committee testimony, final PMIs, UK retail sales, and German factory orders.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.6bps at 1.94%, 5-Yr is up 1.4bps at 2.257%, 10-Yr is up 2.9bps at 2.724%, and 30-Yr is up 3.8bps at 3.336%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.7bps at 3.943%, 5-Yr is up 0.6bps at 4.103%, 10-Yr is up 2.3bps at 4.722%, and 30-Yr is up 3bps at 5.6%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 2.1bps at 86.3bps / French OAT up 0.7bps at 79.3bps

Historical bullets

LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, Core PCE, Chicago PMI

Jul-30 16:37
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 07/31 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (-1.6%, --)
  • 07/31 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (217k, 223k)
  • 07/31 0830 Continuing Claims (1.955M, 1.953M)
  • 07/31 0830 Personal Income (-0.4%, 0.2%), Spending (-0.1%, 0.4%)
  • 07/31 0830 Real Personal Spending (-0.3%, 0.1%)
  • 07/31 0830 PCE Price Index MoM (0.1%, 0.3%), YoY (2.3%, 2.5%)
  • 07/31 0830 Core PCE Price Index MoM (0.2%, 0.3%), YoY (2.7%, 2.7%)
  • 07/31 0830 Employment Cost Index (0.9%, 0.8%)
  • 07/31 0945 MNI Chicago PMI (40.4, 42.0)
  • 07/31 1130 US Tsy $95B 4W & $85B 8W bill auctions
  • Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

OPTIONS: Expiries for Jul31 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

Jul-30 16:35
  • EUR/USD: $1.1475-90(E1.3bln), $1.1490(E986mln), $1.1600-10(E2.6bln), $1.1650-70(E2.0bln), $1.1745-50(E1.1bln), $1.1800(E2.0bln)
  • USD/JPY: Y146.00-20($1.5bln), Y147.40-50($728mln), Y148.00($522mln)
  • AUD/USD: $0.6465(A$1.0bln), $0.6600(A$1.4bln)
  • NZD/USD: $0.5965(N$505mln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.3670-75($1.0bln), C$1.3740($602mln)
  • USD/CNY: Cny7.0700($1.4bln), Cny7.1500($897mln)

FED: US TSY TO SELL $58.000 BLN 3Y NOTES AUG 05, SETTLE AUG 15

Jul-30 16:05
  • US TSY TO SELL $58.000 BLN 3Y NOTES AUG 05, SETTLE AUG 15