BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Core FI Gains On Tariff And Growth Concerns

Mar-28 18:17

European yields fell sharply Friday, with tariff concerns weighing on risk appetite and Eurozone inflation data coming in on the low side.

  • French and Spanish flash March inflation readings were softer than expected, resulting in Bunds hitting what would be their richest levels of the session.
  • The rest of the day proved more mixed, with tariff headlines again the main driver. Core FI pulled back on reports that the EU was considering some trade concessions to the US, and later on positive US-Canada trade tones.
  • But risk aversion would pick up again toward the cash close, with equities falling to 2-week lows on poor US consumption data and Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast, as well as Trump confirming that the US would follow through on tariffs to Canada.
  • On the day, Gilts outperformed Bunds, with bellies outperforming in both the German and UK curves.
  • For the week, both the UK (2s10s +5.2bp) and German (2s10s +7.4bp) bull steepened.
  • Periphery EGB spreads widened alongside the equity drawdown, with BTPs underperforming.
  • Next week's early highlights include German and Italian inflation, with Wednesday's US tariff announcements in focus globally. 

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 4.9bps at 2.02%, 5-Yr is down 5.3bps at 2.32%, 10-Yr is down 4.6bps at 2.727%, and 30-Yr is down 3.2bps at 3.102%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 7.8bps at 4.195%, 5-Yr is down 9.4bps at 4.298%, 10-Yr is down 8.9bps at 4.694%, and 30-Yr is down 8bps at 5.288%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 1.6bps at 112.2bps / Spanish up 1bps at 63.3bps 

Historical bullets

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 7Y Auction: 10Bp Stop, Treasuries Extend Highs

Feb-26 18:04
  • Tsys futures extend highs (TYM5 currently 110-22.5 last, +5) after the $44B 7Y note auction (91282CMR9) stops 10bp through with 4.194% high yield vs. WI of 4.204%; bid-to-cover steady at 2.64x.
  • Peripheral stats: Indirect take-up slips to 66.06% vs. 67.08% prior; Direct take-up  25.16% vs. 23.06% prior; Dealers take 8.78% vs. 9.86% prior.
  • The next 7Y Treasury auction is tentatively scheduled for March 27.

FED: US TSY 7Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.194%; ALLOTMENT 5.81%

Feb-26 18:02
  • US TSY 7Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.194%; ALLOTMENT 5.81%
  • US TSY 7Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 8.78% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 7Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 25.16% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 7Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 66.06% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 7Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.64

EURUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Exposed

Feb-26 18:00
  • RES 4: 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg   
  • RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 6 ‘24
  • RES 2: 1.0594 High Dec 9 ‘24
  • RES 1: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
  • PRICE: 1.0513 @ 16:12 GMT Feb 26
  • SUP 1: 1.0440/01 50-day EMA / Low Feb 19
  • SUP 2: 1.0373 Low Feb 13 
  • SUP 3: 1.0317 Low Feb 12  
  • SUP 4: 1.0280 Low Feb 10 and a key support 

Short-term bullish conditions in EURUSD remain intact and price is trading at its recent highs. Attention is on resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high and a reversal trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition and pave the way for a climb towards 1.0630, the Dec 6 high. For bears, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.0401, the Feb 19 low. A breach of this support would signal a potential reversal threat.