BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Afternoon Weakness Cements Weekly Bear Steepening

Aug-08 18:04

European curves bear steepened to close the week.

  • Bonds leaned a little weaker in early trade, in part due to spill-over from a weak long-end US Treasury auction after the European cash close Thursday.
  • Then EGBs/Gilts turned lower in early afternoon trade with no clear catalyst, though the move was amid fairly thin volumes and weekly lows were not pierced.
  • Comments from BoE chief economist Pill were hawkish, but had little reaction as it's known he dissented against Thursday's rate cut.
  • There was a modest bounce in Bunds alongside a Bloomberg headline reporting that the US and Russia are "planning Ukraine deal cementing Russian gains", but this did little to mitigate the earlier sell-off.
  • Bunds underperformed Gilts across most of the curve. Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads tightened modestly as equities rallied going into the weekend.
  • Curves bear flattened for the week: Germany (2Y +2.7bp, 10Y +1.1bp) outperformed the UK (2Y +10.6bp, 10Y +7.3bp) largely on account of the hawkish-leaning BOE decision.
  • The early highlight next week is the UK labour market data for June/July.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 3.7bps at 1.956%, 5-Yr is up 5.7bps at 2.283%, 10-Yr is up 6bps at 2.69%, and 30-Yr is up 6.8bps at 3.206%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 2.2bps at 3.899%, 5-Yr is up 3.3bps at 4.037%, 10-Yr is up 5.4bps at 4.601%, and 30-Yr is up 7.7bps at 5.428%.
  • Italian BTP spread down 0.4bps at 78.9bps / Spanish down 0.4bps at 56.7bps

Historical bullets

US TSYS: June FOMC Minutes React

Jul-09 18:04
  • Treasury futures holding near recent session highs after June FOMC minutes released - relating risk of persistent tariff-related inflation pass through.
  • Currently, Sep'25 10Y trades +13 at 111-06 (110-23.5L / 111-07.5H), resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high.
  • Curves mixed: 2s10s -2.470 at 47.984; 5s30s +0.465 at 95.648.
  • USD mildly higher, Bbg index BBDXY +0.47 at 1197.11 vs. 1195.65 high.

FED: Instant Answers: Well Positioned To Wait For More Clarity - Minutes

Jul-09 18:00
  • Did any participant mention a potential scenario where rates would need to rise from current levels? NO. "Regarding upside risks to inflation, participants noted that, if the imposition of tariffs were to generate a larger-than-expected increase in inflation, if such an increase in inflation were to be more persistent than anticipated, or if a notable increase in medium- or longer-term inflation expectations were to occur, then it would be appropriate to maintain a more restrictive stance of monetary policy than would otherwise be the case, especially if labor market conditions and economic activity remained solid."
  • Did staff or participants discuss the idea of lowering the ON RRP rate relative to the fed funds rate? NO
  • Did any participant mention changing the IORB rate independently of changes to the fed funds rate? NO

MNI: FED MINUTES: WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT FOR CLARITY

Jul-09 18:00
  • MNI: FED MINUTES: WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT FOR CLARITY
  • FED: MOST OFFICIALS SEE 'SOME REDUCTION' IN RATES BY DEC
  • FED: TARIFF INFLATION BOOST MAY BE TEMPORARY, MODEST
  • FED: 'A COUPLE' OFFICIALS COULD SEE CUT AS SOON AS JULY
  • FED: COULD MAINTAIN MORE RESTRICTIVE POLICY IF NEEDED
  • FED: TO DISCUSS SEP, SCENARIOS AFTER FRAMEWORK REVIEW