EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply Daily
- Slovakia, Germany and France are all scheduled to hold auctions in the W/C 19 January and we also pencil in a 10-year Spanish syndication and an Austrian multi-tranche syndication. We look for issuance of E39.5bln for the week.
- NOMINAL FLOWS: The W/C 19 January will redemptions of just E0.4bln from a formerly 5.5-year LithGB while coupon payments for the week total just E0.2bln. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E38.9bln.
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EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 5902.82 1.764 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 3: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 5825.00 High Nov 13 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 5799.00 High Dec 12
- PRICE: 5736.00 @ 06:23 GMT Dec 17
- SUP 1: 5698.52 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5649.07 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5518.00 Low Nov 25
- SUP 4: 5475.00 Low Nov 21 and the bear trigger
A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact. Price is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and has recently cleared 5742.40, 76.4% of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg. The breach of this latter price point paves the way for an extension towards 5825.00, the Nov 13 high and the bull trigger. First key support to watch lies at 5649.07, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a potential short-term reversal.
UK DATA: Inflation Data Due at 7:00GMT
For the full MNI preview see page 2 of the PDF here here
- The November print is expected a tenth above the BOE’s forecast at 3.5%Y/Y.
- The source of the median view being above the BOE forecast is largely from petrol prices, however.
- The median for services CPI is 4.53%Y/Y (the BOE forecast is 4.5%) while food inflation (4.73%Y/Y) is expected to slow more than the BOE’s forecast (5.0%).
- There are also some uncertainties around core goods given the timing of Black Friday sales. We have seen forecasts range from 1.16% to 1.6%Y/Y for this category. The BRC Shop Price index pointed to softness from early Black Friday sales but that survey is always earlier in the month than the ONS collects prices, so it’s hard to know how much weight to give this.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply Daily and Funding Plans Update
Portugal will hold a buyback today while Belgium will hold an ORI operation tomorrow for which we pencil in issuance of E0.5bln. Issuance plans for 2026 from Germany (Thursday), Italy (likely Friday) and potentially Greece are due this week. Monday saw both the EU and Portugal release 2026 funding plans. We also expect confirmation from Finland (Friday) and France for their 2026 funding plans.
See the full MNI Supply Daily here
- Portugal will hold a reverse auction today and will look to buyback the 2.875% Jul-26 OT (ISIN: PTOTETOE0012), the 4.125% Apr-27 OT (ISIN: PTOTEUOE0019) and the 0.70% Oct-27 OT (ISIN: PTOTEMOE0035).
- Belgium will come to the market on Friday with an ORI auction. Details will be confirmed tomorrow.
- We summarise 2026 funding plans from Austria, Belgium, the EU, the ESM/EFSF, Finland, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.
