EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply Daily
Belgium will look to hold an ORI auction today. The EFSF held a syndication earlier this week while the EU, Austria, Germany, Spain and France have held auctions and Italy has held a buyback. We pencil in issuance of E34.2bln for the week, up from E31.0bln last week.
- Belgium will conclude the week’s issuance today by holding an ORI auction. BDA will be looking to sell up to a combined E500mln of the 3.45% Jun-43 OLO (ISIN: BE0000359688) alongside the 2.25% Jun-57 OLO (ISIN: BE0000343526).
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 3: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 1: 6802.75 High Oct 7
- PRICE: 6761.50 @ 07:31 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 6700.59 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6624.25 Low Sep 25
- SUP 3: 6582.78 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and the direction remains up. Recent fresh cycle highs confirm a continuation of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6812.29, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 6700.59. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper pullback.
USD: A busy session for the Kiwi and the Yen
- The US Dollar is in the Green against all the majors, and the immediate focus will be on the Kiwi following the surprised 50bps cut from the RBNZ.
- The NZDUSD is down over 1%, exchanges hands at its lowest level since April and is now eyeing a test towards the next support at 0.5728, the 61.8% retracement of the April/July range.
- We highlighted for the past few risk to the AUDNZD cross, with a target of 1.1500, so far the AUDNZD has printed a 1.1446 high, but market participants will have their Eyes at that 1.1491 (2022 high) 1.1500 area.
- The Yen remains the big focus nonetheless, USDJPY spiked to its highest level since February as Traders push back on earlier Rate Hike from the BoJ.
- Aside from today's printed high of 152.64, the next resistance in USDJPY is at 153.15 (14 Feb high).
- The Chart to watch of late has been the EURJPY, this cross printed a new record high, since the EUR Inception, but just fell short of the next level seen at 177.67 1.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing.
- EURJPY printed a intraday high at 177.46, but has fallen back to 177.00 at the Time of Typing.
WTI TECHS: (X5) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $66.42/68.43 - High Sep 29 and key resistance / High Jul 30
- PRICE: $62.30 @ 07:24 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: $60.40 - Low Oct 2
- SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
WTI futures have recovered from the most recent low print - a correction. A bearish theme remains intact. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a move through key support and the bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. Clearance of this level strengthens the bear threat and paves the way for an extension towards $57.50, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal.
