EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Austria, the Netherlands, Finland, Greece, Germany, Spain, France, Italy and potentially Belgium all still look to sell bonds this week while the EFSF Slovakia and the EU all came to the market yesterday. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E49.3bln, around double last week’s E24.0bln.
- Austria will come to the market in the “near future” to launch a new 6-year May-29 Green RAGB for E3bln WNG alongside a new 30-year Oct-53 RAGB. MNI expects the transaction to take place on today and looks for a size of E2.5-4.0bln for the 30-year RAGB.
- This morning will see the Netherlands come to the market to issue E1-2bln of the 0% Jan-52 DSL (ISIN: NL0015614579) via auction.
- Today will also see Finland hold a 5/25-year RFGB auction for up to E500mln of the 0.50% Sep-28 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000348727) and up to E1.0bln of the 1.375% Apr-47 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000242870).
- Belgium did not announce the details of its auction next week which can often be an indication of an upcoming syndication. Belgium has already launched 10-year and 30-year OLOs so far this year and has plans for three syndications in total, with the maturity of the third to be “determined by the market” according to the 2023 issuance plan. The syndication could be announced as soon as today to be held tomorrow.
- Germany will hold investor meetings starting today to present its Green Bond presentation (that was released yesteday). We would expect a syndicated transaction to follow, potentially as early as tomorrow. We pencil in a transaction size of E4-5bln. Germany’s 2023 funding plan included two green syndications this year: a 10-year transaction and a longer-maturity transaction. The next Green auction is not due to be held until 7 June.
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MNI: US HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES ANNOUNCES HEARING ON SVB, SIG
- MNI: US HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES ANNOUNCES HEARING ON SVB, SIG
- FDIC CHAIR GRUENBERG, FED VICE CHAIR BARR TO TESTIFY MARCH 29
- HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVS SAYS TO BE FIRST OF MULTIPLE HEARINGS
USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
- RES 1: 1.3814/3862 High Mar 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3733 @ 16:44 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 1.3652 Low Mar 14
- SUP 2: 1.3562 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
- SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21
The recent move lower in USDCAD appears to be a correction and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains strengthened a bullish theme. Price has cleared the Dec 16 high of 1.3705 and traded above 1.3800. Scope is seen for gains towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 high. Initial support is seen at 1.3652, Tuesday’s low. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
- RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
- RES 2: 0.6784/87 High Mar 1 and a key resistance / 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6748 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 0.6696 @ 16:43 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 0.6590/47 Low Mar 15 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish despite the recent recovery - a shallow correction. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforced a bearish theme. The break lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and price has breached key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.
