EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply

• After the CPI data and possibly the PMI data, this release is still up there as one of the most important UK domestic releases of the month.
• We still place most emphasis on private sector regular AWE. The November latest MPR forecast looks for this metric to come in at 4.75%Y/Y in the 3-months to September (but rounding up to 4.8% to 1dp), a little below the 4.83%Y/Y forecast it made 3-months prior) and August print of 4.81%, but a little above the 4.7% MNI median.
• It appears to us as though there are some risks that the 3-month number rounds up to 4.8%Y/Y here – or at least that seems more likely than a 4.6%Y/Y print in the 3-months to September.
• The unemployment rate is forecast at 4.17% by the BOE (4.1% MNI median and Bloomberg consensus) up from 3.99% in August. Given the volatility (and unreliability) of the LFS data, we don’t place too much weight on the unemployment rate.

For the full MNI Labour Market Preview see the PDF: UK_Data_Labour_2024_11_Release.pdf

The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Portugal will look to hold auctions this week. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E20.7bln, down from E32.8bln last week.

• Today, the Netherlands will sell E2.0-2.5bln of the 5-year 0.25% Jul-29 DSL (ISIN: NL0013332430).
• Also today, Germany will sell E5bln of the 2.00% Dec-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22072).
• Tomorrow, Italy will hold a 3/7/15-year BTP auction. On offer will be E3.5-4.0bln of the new 3-year 2.70% Oct-27 BTP (ISIN: TBC), E1.25-1.50bln of the 3.50% Feb-31 BTP (ISIN: IT0005580094), E1.25-1.50bln of the 2.50% Dec-32 BTP (ISIN: IT0005494239) and E1.00-1.25bln of the on-the-run 15-year 4.15% Oct-39 BTP (ISIN: IT0005582421). Note that the 3.15% Nov-31 BTP that was recently launched via syndication will not be on offer.
• Also tomorrow, Germany will return to the market to sell E4bln of the 10-year 2.60% Aug-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z031).
• Finally tomorrow, Portugal will hold an OT auction, to sell a combined E1.00-1.25bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.875% Oct-34 OT (ISIN: PTOTESOE0021) and the 4.10% Feb-45 OT (ISIN: PTOTEBOE0020).

For more on this week's issuance and a look ahead to next week see the PDF here: EZ241112.pdf

Spain, Italy, Belgium, Finland and France are due to sell bills today to complete the week's issuance, whilst Germany came to the market yesterday. We expect issuance to be E28.6bln in first round operations, down from E29.6bln last week.

• This morning, Spain will issue a combined E1.5-2.5bln of the 3-month Feb 5, 2025 letras and the 9-month Aug 6, 2025 letras.
• Also this morning, Italy will come to the market to sell E1.5bln of the new 2-month Jan 14, 2025 BOT and E7.5bln of the new 12-month Nov 14, 2025 BOT.
• Thirdly this morning, Belgium looks to sell a combined E3.2-3.6bln of the following TCs: an indicative E1.4bln of the 4-month Mar 13, 2025 TC and an indicative E2.0bln of the new 12-month Nov 13, 2025 TC.
• Next today, Finland will issue a combined E1-2bln of the 6-month May 13, 2025 RFTB and the 9-month Aug 13, 2025 RFTB.
• Finally today, France will sell up to a combined E7.9bln of the 12/14/25/51-week BTFs: E0.4-0.8bln of the 12-week Feb 2, 2025 BTF, E2.9-3.3bln of the new 14-week Feb 19, 2025 BTF, E1.6-2.0bln of the 25-week May 7, 2025 BTF and E1.4-2.0bln of the 51-week Nov 5, 2025 BTF.

For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.