STIR: Effective Fed Funds Rate

• A recent rise in USDCAD gathers pace at 1.3195 (+0.32%) as CAD continues to modestly outperform Antipodeans amidst USD strength.
• It earlier stopped just a few pips shy of testing initial resistance at 1.3208 (Sep 1 high), with any dovish slant from the BoC potentially opening key resistance at 1.3224 (Jul 14 highs) and late 2020 levels after that.
• On the flip side, support is seen at 1.3075 (Sep 2 low) but could take a notable hawkish surprise to sustain a move lower, with the complication of Mester (’22 voter) speaking at the same time.
• Little impetus from international trade data, with a larger than expected trade surplus in July offset by a small downward revision to June. Volumes data indicated a net trade boost from a GDP perspective but with weaker implications for domestic demand (exports +1.7%, imports -1.4%).

Source: Bloomberg

• MNI: US REDBOOK: SEP STORE SALES +10.9% V YR AGO MO
• US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +10.9% WK ENDED SEP 03 V YR AGO WK