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Two days of public hearings on the United States-Canada-Mexico trade agreement (USMCA) get underway today at USTR, ahead of a mandatory review of the agreement on July 1 next year. A full list of witnesses here. 

• The Globe and Mail reports that NY-based Canadian lawyer, Barry Appleton, said Canada needs to be prepared for the risk that the US announces its withdrawal from the USMCA as a negotiating tactic. Appleton told Bloomberg, “Simply hinting that he could [withdraw], would put the Canadians in an incredibly difficult negotiating position.”
• Laura Dawson at the Future Border Coalition said the US benefits too much from the USMCA to abandon it: “There are a lot of places in the United States that are both Trump supporters and trade supporters... it would be very difficult to find a constituency of support to abandon [USMCA].”
• The Brookings Institution notes, “if the three parties each agree to an extension by July 1, 2026 ..., the agreement will be extended until 2042. If they fail to agree, a clock will start to tick toward USMCA’s eventual termination in ten years at the end of the original 16-year term (i.e., 2036).”
• The Globe notes, “A withdrawal notice from any country that is a signatory to the USMCA would trigger a six-month countdown to that member exiting the agreement.”
• Brookings reported in March: “Unlike in the first round of USMCA negotiations, the agenda likely will go beyond traditional trade disciplines to include migration, drug interdiction, and possibly in the case of Canada, defense spending.”

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