GOLD: Edging Away From All-Time Highs Into FOMC, Bullish Trend Intact

• EUR/USD: $1.1560(E1.1bln), $1.1575(E678mln), $1.1600-05(E606mln), $1.1640-50(E1.2bln), $1.1800(E683mln)
• USD/JPY: Y147.90-00($544mln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6475(A$542mln), $0.6500-10(A$689mln)

The Euro area goods trade surplus was smaller than expected in June at E7.0bln (cons E14.5bln). The seasonally adjusted equivalent meanwhile fell to just E2.8bln vs E15.6bln in May, the lowest monthly surplus since July 2023. It represents a seeming continuation of the payback seen since the spike in Feb-Mar underpinned by US tariff front-running.

• June's "decline was mainly driven by a drop in the surplus of chemicals and related products, which fell from E4.4bn to E15.1bn", Eurostat comments on the non-SA data (see upper chart).
• In Q2, "euro area exports and imports to non-EA countries fell by 5.9% and 2.4% respectively, compared with the first quarter. Intra-euro area trade fell by 0.3%."
• On a longer-term comparison, in H1, the euro area recorded a goods trade surplus of E93.3bn, an 8.5% Y/Y decline.

WTI futures remain in a clear bear cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at $62.84, the Jun 24 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $58,17 the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $70.51, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $64.94, the 50-day EMA. A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. This sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.

• WTI Crude up $0.1 or +0.16% at $62.9
• Natural Gas down $0.11 or -3.6% at $2.813
• Gold spot up $12.39 or +0.37% at $3348.75
• Copper down $1.3 or -0.29% at $454.25
• Silver up $0.11 or +0.3% at $38.1155
• Platinum down $5.25 or -0.39% at $1336.25