EURGBP TECHS: Edges Off Lows
May-14 18:00
- RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
- RES 1: 0.8465 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8434 @ 15:52 BST May 14
- SUP 1: 0.8403 Low May 12
- SUP 2: 0.8400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
EURGBP is trading just above recent lows. The cross traded to a fresh, short-term cycle low Monday, strengthening a bearish theme. It has also cleared support at 0.8465, the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 0.8415 next, a Fibonacci retracement. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 0.8400 and below. Key near-term resistance is 0.8541, the May 2 high. A break of it is required to signal a potential reversal.
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FOREX: EURGBP Slides 1% Ahead of UK Labour Market Figures
Apr-14 17:56
- In a similar, albeit less volatile session to Friday, there dollar has seen significant two way price swings, culminating in broad dollar indices ticking lower on the day. Initial greenback weakness was exacerbated by a more optimistic tone for risk sentiment, assisted by the tariff reprieves for key tech products (released late on Friday). This allowed the USD index to edge back towards Friday’s cycle low of 99.01. 5-year treasury yields are 14bps lower on the session, providing an additional dollar headwind.
- However, the USD did find a base as the more constructive tone in equity markets soured through the US session. Price action was best exemplified by USDJPY, which had a punchy 207 pip range. After gapping higher at the open to levels around 144.30, USDJPY then steadily sold off, seeing the pair reach as low as 142.24 before stabilising. Despite the impressive moves for US yields on the day, the pair holds closer to 143.00 as we approach the APAC crossover.
- The best performers in G10 are NZD, GBP and NOK. NZDUSD has risen just shy of 1% Monday, and the recovery seems to have boosted by further short covering above 0.5850. Spot has returned to levels last seen in December, just below the 0.5900 mark.
- Overall, with reciprocal tariffs delayed, GBP is rallying well - underscoring GBP's correlation with risk - which looks through only marginal tweaks to monetary policy pricing. Technically, moving average studies remain in a bull mode position that highlights a dominant uptrend. An extension higher would open key resistance and the bull trigger is 1.3207, the Apr 3 high. Single currency weakness has seen EURGBP move 1% lower on Monday to 0.8600.
- For EURUSD, spot had another brief flurry above 1.14 to a 1.1425 high in early trade. However, the greenback stabilisation prompted a solid turnaround for the pair, which now sits closer to 1.1330 as markets have one eye on the ECB meeting this Thursday.
- RBA minutes, UK labour market figures and German ZEW are all scheduled on Tuesday, ahead of Canadian CPI and US Empire State Manufacturing, which highlight the North American session.
STIR: BLOCK: Dec'25 SOFR Put Flys
Apr-14 17:40
- 5,000 SFRZ5 95.50/95.62/95.75 put flys, 1.0 ref 96.51 at 1332:25ET
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Empire Mfg, Import/Export Price Index
Apr-14 17:36
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 15-Apr 0830 Empire Manufacturing (-20.0, -12.0)
- 15-Apr 0830 Import Price Index MoM (0.4%, 0.0%), YoY (2.0%, 1.4%)
- 15-Apr 0830 Export Price Index MoM (0.1%, 0.0%), YoY (2.1%, --)
- 15-Apr 1130 US Tsy $48B 52W & $70B 6W bill sales
- 15-Apr 1910 Fed Gov Cook, alumni event (text, no Q&A)
