EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Edenred: optimism has fizzled quickly, -16% WTD

Gilts have generally taken cues from wider core global FI markets today.

• Futures +29 at 90.83 vs. session highs of 90.93.
• Bears remain in technical control, initial support and resistance located at 90.26 & 91.08, both remain untouched.
• 10-Year yields are back to the middle of the 4.60-4.80% multi-week closing range.
• Curve twist flattens.
• A reminder that the ONS has detected errors in the PSNB data, meaning that the UK’s fiscal situation is marginally less downbeat than was previously envisaged, which has probably driven some of the gilt curve flattening (although the discrepancies are quite minor in the grander scheme of things).
• BoE chief economist Pill to speak shortly, see prior STIR bullet for greater detail on that.

• BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill is due to speak at the Maxwell Fry Annual Lecture in Birmingham today.
• The text will be released here: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2025/october/huw-pill-speech-at-the-maxwell-fry-annual-lecture
• And the full event including the Q&A will be available to watch here: https://bham-ac-uk.zoom.us/j/89375184060?pwd=HgGUAiYj9vhDLX5mbmFixdlBZ2hasT.1
• Even if Pill discusses monetary policy we don't expect it to be hugely market moving. He is known to be on the hawkish side and has argued in favour of a skip to the quarterly cutting pattern (and indeed backed this up with his August vote).
• Of course, if he entertains the prospect of a Q4 cut with only 4.8bp priced by year-end this would be a surprise to the market. But anything on the hawkish side is unlikely to drive things here.

Amichai Stein at the Jerusalem Post reports on X regarding ongoing Gaza peace talks in Egypt, “Israeli and foreign sources are telling me in the last hour: "Optimistic about the chances of reaching a deal, entering the critical hours."”

• Roi Kais at KAN reports similarly, “A senior American official told the "Sky News" channel in Arabic that "the professional discussions in Sharm el-Sheikh have reached a critical point." He added that they are "optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement in the near future."”
• Jennifer Griffin at Fox News reports, “Fox News can confirm Secretary of State Rubio will be in Paris tomorrow (Thursday) for high-level ministerial meetings on Gaza plans. The talks will include representatives from France, the UK, Germany, Gulf region countries, Turkey and others.” The report confirms earlier MNI bullet, see: MIDEAST: Rubio To Attend Paris Gaza Meet; Expanded Hamas-Israel Talks Continue
• JPost reported earlier that Hamas "requested written guarantees of Israel’s commitment to a ceasefire" as US President Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Sharm el-Sheikh to join negotiations.
• A spokesperson for Hamas' political wing said the group had “presented the necessary positivity and responsibility” to advance efforts toward an agreement. Mediators, he said, were “making great efforts to remove any obstacles,” and that “a spirit of optimism prevails among all parties,” per JPost.