EM LATAM CREDIT: Ecuador International Reserves Increase: Positive

• Initially on Monday, the US dollar traded weaker against all others in G10, as traders were happy to erode a portion of the post-NFP advance and resume the underlying trend of greenback selling. However, firmer-than-expected ISM services data assisted a solid rebound, with dollar indices now only trading in moderately negative territory as we approach the APAC crossover.
• US ISM Services Index data rose to the highest level since January 2023, and the higher-than-expected prices paid component (65.1 vs. 61.4 est.) has provided further impetus for the greenback recovery.
• This has helped the likes of EUR and GBP to edge back towards unchanged on the session, the clear underperformers in G10. For EURUSD, this translates to the pair reversing around 65 pips from session highs to trade back at 1.13. Initial key support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 1.1264.
• A similar move for GBPUSD has seen spot narrow the gap to overnight lows of 1.3257. A bearish tweezer top formation on the daily candle chart last Monday/Tuesday highlights a short-term top. Support to watch lies at 1.3225, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• AUD remains among the best performers after an extended period of consolidation, AUDUSD is gaining following the surprisingly strong showing for Anthony Albanese in the weekend's general elections. The price action puts the rate above the 200-dma and a close above would be the first since November last year.
• Despite the dollar rebound, USDJPY remains 0.6% lower on the session at 144.10, with technical resistance levels remaining intact for now. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Lower-than-forecast inflation data in Switzerland did little to knock the ongoing optimism for the Swiss Franc. Key USDCHF resistance remain intact at 0.8333, the 2023 low and breakdown point.

• RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing     
• RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
• RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8557 High Apr 28 
• PRICE: 0.8521 @ 16:30 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 0.8480 Low May 1
• SUP 2: 0.8477/65 61.8% of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally 
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support  

EURGBP has recovered from its latest lows, however a sell-on-rallies theme last week could cap gains and keep focus on the current bear cycle. Sights are on 0.8477, a Fibonacci retracement point where a break would strengthen the bearish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA, is at 0.8465. It is still possible the move down that started Apr 11, is a correction. A clear reversal would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger. 

Low end of the estimate, $4.5B Apple Inc 4pt deal leads today's issuance size:

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 05/05 $4.5B #Apple Inc $1.5B 3Y +25, $1B 5Y +30, $1B 7Y +40, $1B 10Y +50
• 05/05 $2.5B #Comcast $650M 7Y +85, $850M 10Y +100, $1B 30Y +122
• 05/05 $2B #General Motors $750M 3Y +155, $750M 5Y +170, $500M 10Y +195
• 05/05 $1.3B #DTE Electric $300M 2Y +45, $500M 10Y +93, $500M 30Y +103
• 05/05 $1.25B #American Int Group $625M each: 5Y +95, 10Y +112
• 05/05 $1.25B #Prologis $500M +5Y +85, $750M 10Y +103
• 05/05 $1B #ADP 7Y +63