EM LATAM CREDIT: Ecuador: IMF USD620mn Disbursement – Positive

Rate lock hedged and speculative selling ahead unexpected Large (dual currency) debt issuance from Alphabet weighing on Tsys (TYZ5 slipped to 112-20 low, -1.5). Size of US$ issuance TBA. See ** for comps:

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 11/03 $Benchmark Alphabet 8-pt jumbo**: 3Y +60a, 3Y SOFR, +5Y +70a, 7Y +80a, 10Y +90a, 20Y +100a, 30Y +110a, 50Y +135a (massive debt issuance includes $6.5B over 6 tranches: 3Y, 6Y, 7Y, 13Y, 19Y and 39Y).
• 11/03 $Benchmark UBS 8NC7 +120a, 21.5NC20.5 +115a
• 11/03 $Benchmark Peoples Republic of China 3Y, 5Y 
• 11/03 $Benchmark Qatar 3Y +45a, 10Y Sukuk +55a
• 11/03 $Benchmark Kingdom of Jordan 7Y investor calls
  • **Piror Alphabet issuance for comparison: $5B on April 28 of this year ($750M 5Y +32, $1.25B 10Y +47, $1.5B 30Y +62, $1.5B 40Y +70) a long stretch since issuing $10B on Aug 3 2020 ($1B 5Y +25, $1B 7Y +45, $2.25B 10Y +58, $1.25B 20Y +73, $2.5B 30Y +88 and $2B 40Y +108)

Tesoro el Publico will look to sell a combined E4.0-5.0bln of the following Oblis at its auction on Thursday:

• 3.00% Jan-33 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012P74)
• 1.85% Jul-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012E69)
• 3.50% Jan-41 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012O75)

Spain will also look to sell E250-750mln of the 1.15% Nov-36 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012O18) at that auction.
 

Additionally, Spain will look to sell a combined E4.5-5.5bln of the 6-month May 8, 2026 letras and the new 12-month Nov 6, 2026 letras at its auction tomorrow.

An 8-part USD issuance announcement from Google’s parent Alphabet adds some pressure to U.S. paper.

• TY tests session lows, while Bund & gilt futures tick to fresh session lows,
• Bonds were already trading lower over the last couple of hours, with soft demand at the latest round of EU supply and early NY reaction to the uptick in equities touted as potential drivers in that window.