EM LATAM CREDIT: Ecopetrol: Fitch Affirmed Ratings and Neg Outlook

European yields mostly fell Tuesday, to close September on a slightly positive note.

• Core FI saw an early bid with French flash September inflation softer-than-expected, and a US federal government shutdown on Oct 1 looming. German CPI was in line, but HICP was slightly above consensus (as was Italy's).
• On net ahead Wednesday's flash Eurozone HICP print, we track the Y/Y at  2.2-2.3%Y/Y, broadly in line with consensus coming into the week. In other data, there was little reaction to modest revisions to UK Q2 GDP.
• BOE's Breeden spoke toward the cash close, calling current policy restrictive and sounding supportive of easing policy but did not specify a timeline. UK STIR futures were little changed.
• The German curve twist steepened slightly, with UK yields modestly lower across the curve. Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads tightened a bit, helped by Spain lowering its net issuance target for the year by E5bln.
• The possible US government shutdown will bear attention after the cash close. Apart from the Eurozone inflation data, Wednesday's schedule includes final PMIs and appearances by ECB's Kazimir, Kocher, Simkus and Guindos, as well as BOE's Mann.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.4bps at 2.019%, 5-Yr is down 0.3bps at 2.309%, 10-Yr is up 0.4bps at 2.711%, and 30-Yr is up 0.8bps at 3.28%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.3bps at 3.985%, 5-Yr is down 0.9bps at 4.136%, 10-Yr is down 0.1bps at 4.699%, and 30-Yr is down 0.3bps at 5.506%.
• Italian BTP spread down 0.3bps at 82.3bps / French OAT down 0.5bps at 82.2bps

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance    
• RES 3: .3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17 
• RES 2: 1.3537 High Sep 23 1
• RES 1: 1.3482 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3443 @ 16:28 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 1.3324 Low Sep 25
• SUP 2: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
• SUP 3: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
• SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle          

The bear cycle in GBPUSD that started Sep 17, remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 1.3491, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. This undermines a recent bullish theme. Note too that 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support, has been pierced, opening 1.3282 next, the Aug 6 low. Initial key resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high. A break of this hurdle would signal a reversal.           

The Congressional Budget Office releases a short report on the potential impact of a full government shutdown in response to a request by Senator Ernst, here.

• The analysis is based largely on the impact report published after the partial shutdown in Dec 2018-Jan 2019. The key findings are that around 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed (around the generally accepted consensus of 800,000), and that the economic impact - while dependent on the details - could see a short-term negative impact reverse when payments were restarted.
• On the scope of the "CBO estimates that under a lapse in discretionary funding for fiscal year 2026 about 750,000 employees could be furloughed each day; the total daily cost of their compensation would be roughly $400 million." The CBO does not make this explicit but the impact could be more acute if the Trump administration follows through with its threat to fire many workers instead of furloughing them. (It says "the Administration has indicated that it might subject some employees, who might otherwise be furloughed, to a reduction in force."
• On the economic impact: "The effects of a government shutdown on the economy would depend on its extent and duration. For example, CBO reported that the five- week partial shutdown ending in January 2019 delayed discretionary spending for compensation and for purchases of goods and services and suspended some federal services. Once the government reopened, most of the payments were made. At the time, CBO estimated that although most of the real gross domestic product (GDP; real GDP is adjusted to remove the effects of inflation) that was lost during the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 eventually would be recovered, about $3 billion would never be. In its report, CBO projected that amount at 0.02 percent of annual GDP in 2019." Most analyst estimates of the GDP impact are around 0.1-0.2pp (annualized) per week of shutdown.
• Most of the other impacts - including "delayed procurements and lapsed contracts during a shutdown" are more difficult to determine, but unsurprisingly "In general, a longer lapse will have larger effects than a shorter one will."