HUNGARY: Economy Unexpectedly Contracts in 1Q-2025
- Hungary’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter of the year, with GDP down 0.2% from 4Q-2024 and flat on an annual basis. The median estimate was for 0.4% growth for both quarterly and annual GDP. The Hungarian statistics office noted that while the performance of services positively affected gross domestic product, industry and construction sectors weighed negatively on activity.
- Meanwhile, the nation’s trade surplus widened to EUR 1.768bln in March from a revised surplus of EUR 1.237bln in February – reaching a record high. Imports rose 4.9% m/m while exports rose 8.7% m/m.
- The national legislature approved a law yesterday that requires Hungarian members of the European Parliament to file annual asset declarations and allows the election authority to terminate their mandates in case of omissions or refusal to make such statements. Critics of Prime Minister Viktor Orban say the move is an attempt to sideline his rival Peter Magyar before next year’s election.
- Prime Minister Orban’s cabinet holds a weekly meeting this afternoon. No other data releases are scheduled for today, with manufacturing PMI figures for April due Friday.
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USDCAD TECHS: Trend Signal Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.4402 High Mar 20
- PRICE: 1.4325 @ 08:08 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD continues to trade above last week’s high. A return lower and clearance of 1.4235, the Mar 26 low, would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. First resistance to watch is 1.4402, the Mar 20 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6331/91 High Mar 26 / High Mar 17 and 18
- PRICE: 0.6287 @ 08:04 BST Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged and is trading in a tight range. A S/T bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
US TSY FUTURES: Screen Buyer Of TU Helps Underpin Rally
Note that a 5K screen lift of TU futures at 103-23 helps underpin the space, even as European equity index futures edge away from lows.
