MNI EXCLUSIVE: Economists & Former Staffers Share Their RBA Cash Rate Outlook

TYZ5 is trading 113-17, down 0-00+ from its close. 

• The US 2-year yield opens around 3.501%.
• The US 10-year yield opens around 4.028%.
• MNI BRIEF: Miran Sworn In As Fed Board Governor By Judge. White House economic adviser Stephen Miran was sworn in Tuesday as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, just before the start of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting that is expected to end in an interest rate cut.
• (Bloomberg) -- Bond traders are stepping up options wagers that the Federal Reserve will deliver at least one half-point interest-rate cut across this year’s three remaining policy meetings
• 10-Year Yields continue to do work just above 4.00% as the market looks towards the FOMC tomorrow morning. The first buy-zone is now back towards the 4.20% area where I suspect decent demand should return initially. A sustained break through 4.00% is needed for the focus to then turn towards the 3.80% area. The market does seem confident and is pricing in a dovish outcome, the risk is Powell does not deliver.
• Data/Events: MBA Mortgage Applications, Housing Starts, FOMC Rate Decision

• MNI: JAPAN AUG EXPORTS -0.1% Y/Y; JULY -2.6%
• JAPAN AUG EXPORTS POST 4TH STRAIGHT Y/Y DROP

South Korea, along with Taiwan, were the standouts from an offshore equity flow standpoint yesterday. After a slower inflow backdrop on Monday, inflows surged yesterday amid both buoyant global and local equity market trends. The Kospi and the Taiex both rose over 1% to fresh cycle highs in Tuesday trade. Overnight saw softness, particularly in EU stocks, but the SOX positive momentum continued. Near term focus will rest with the Fed tone, particularly Fed Chair Powell's outlook for further rate cuts in terms of timing and size, post a likely easing later on Wednesday US time. 

• For South Korea, via BBG: "Top net-buying by foreign investors: Samsung Electronics, Doosan Enerbility, SK Hynix, HJ Shipbuilding, Hanwha Aerospace", whilst Taiwan's inflows for Sep to date are now above $8bn, close to fresh cycle highs.
• Elsewhere, flows trends were mixed. India reverted back to modest outflows on Monday, while the 5-day sum is moderately positive.
• Indonesia saw small outflows yesterday, with today's BI decision coming into focus. Onshore demonstrations may also unfold today.
• Thailand saw better inflows yesterday, but the 5 day sum remains close to flat. Also note, Malaysian markets return today.    

Table 1: Asian Markets Net Equity Flows 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI